Fitch Lowers India's Growth Projections to 7.8 pc

Fitch has lowered the country’s economic growth projections to 7.8% for FY16 from the earlier estimated 8%, while ICRA Ratings pegged growth at 7.4-7.6%.

Published: 03rd July 2015 05:19 AM  |   Last Updated: 03rd July 2015 05:19 AM   |  A+A-

HYDERABAD:Fitch has lowered the country’s economic growth projections to 7.8% for FY16 from the earlier estimated 8%, while ICRA Ratings pegged growth at 7.4-7.6%. Fitch, however, said it expects growth rate to surpass Chian’s for the first time since 1999, forecasting an acceleration to 8.1% in 2016-17 before settling back to 8% in 2017-18. While maintaining the expectation for an increase in growth, Fitch lowered its real GDP growth forecasts for India to 7.8% and 8.1% from 8% and 8.3% for FY16 and FY17 respectively. Meanwhile, ICRA said, the better-than-expected monsoon and sowing turnout in June 2015 have increased hopes for a rate cut in Q3, FY16. “Only around one-fourth of the total area covered under kharif planting in 2014 was sown by the end of June 2015. Accordingly, rainfall dynamics in the remainder of the monsoon season would continue to impact the sowing pattern and eventual crop yields,” said Aditi Nayar, Senior Economist, ICRA. However, growth of IIP, core sector industries, and various services sector indicators related to air traffic and cargo handled at ports are encouraging. “Such factors would support a mild uptick in Indian GDP growth to 7.4-7.6 per cent in 2015-16 from 7.3% in 2014-15,” it said adding this would keep the food inflation in check in the near-term. 

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