Big tsunamis may strike east coast every 360 years: Study

A study conducted by the Institute of Ocean Management, Anna University suggests a cyclicity of 360 years for large tsunamis in the East Coast of India.
The 2004 tsunami claimed more than 8,000 lives in Tamil Nadu. | Express
The 2004 tsunami claimed more than 8,000 lives in Tamil Nadu. | Express

CHENNAI: A study conducted by the Institute of Ocean Management, Anna University suggests a cyclicity of 360 years for large tsunamis in the East Coast of India. According to the study report, the next tsunami like the massive one that hit the state in 2004, might strike the East Coast after 360 years, said director of the Institute of Ocean Management, S Srinivasalu. Funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the institute conducted a detailed study on ‘Constraining the tsunami cyclicity along the southeast coast of India’.

“According to our study, prior to 2004 the region may have witnessed a similar devastating tsunami almost 600 years ago” said Srinivasalu. The study laid stress on the Paleo-tsunami research, which is based primarily on the identification, mapping, and dating of tsunami deposits found in coastal areas, and their correlation with similar sediments found elsewhere regionally.

Srinivasalu, who headed the study, covered approximately 500 km of coastal tract from Chennai in the north to Vedaranyam in the south, along the southeast Indian coast to conduct the study. The field study includes topographic surveys using total station, identifying and measuring tsunami deposit thicknesses by digging pits and analyzing the layers of sediments deposited near the coasts and then conducting radiocarbon dating test to find out the cyclicity of the tsunamis in the region. Besides, the team also analysed historical literature and geological records.

Quoting the study, Srinivasalu said that after witnessing the impact of the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the common public thought,  ‘nothing like this had ever happened before’. Besides, to ensure a better tsunami disaster management we need to have detailed information on tsunami recurrence interval, which prompted the study.

“In India, particularly, in southeastern India, we do not have any perfect historic data base in written or oral ancient records about the impact and occurrence of tsunami. Hence such study was necessary as it may provide important new information about past tsunamis in the region and its severity. The information may aid in the assessment of the tsunami hazard,” said Srinivasalu.

He said that the study, which started in 2008, is a continuous and ongoing one. “On the basis of the information collected in this study, we are conducting a detailed study on the intensity and history of cyclones in the region.”

“There has been a significant rise in the number of cyclones in the state and our study will help in understanding the reasons behind it in a proper way and will help in dealing with the situation in a more efficient manner,” said the professor. He added that predicting the exact severity, impact and timing of tsunami is very difficult.

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