KOCHI: Thomas V, a foreman in his 50s, has been waiting for a call from his former employer Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC), a big engineering and construction firm in West Asia, after his return to Kerala two years ago.
The fall in oil prices from a high of $140 a barrel in 2008 to $43-44 in 2015 meant West Asian countries drastically cut investments, leading to job losses.This forced lakhs of migrants like Thomas from Kerala to return home.With the revival in crude demand - the prices touched $80 a barrel on September 25 before easing to $75 a barrel on Thursday - experts reckon the job prospects look brighter.
The recent depreciation in the rupee value and the massive losses suffered in the devastating floods during August may also act as a trigger for more people from the state to look for jobs in West Asia, they said.
Centre for Development Studies professor Irudaya Rajan S, who has been studying the migration trend from Kerala for the past several years, said the rise in crude prices will create more jobs in the region and “stimulate more migration”.
Released last month, Rajan’s latest Kerala Migration Survey - which looked at the trend from 2013 to 2018 - had found that there had been a 11.6 per cent decline (3 lakh people) in migration from the state in the period.
The rupee fell nearly 13.5 per cent in 2018, touching an all-time low of `74 a dollar earlier this month.
This will also help migrants looking for jobs in West Asia to afford a lower pay as the loss in earnings can be offset by higher earnings in rupees due to the currency’s depreciation.
According to Fitch Ratings, the break-even oil price for Arab countries to balance their budgets for 2018 is $53 in Kuwait, $62 in the UAE, $64 in Qatar, $78 in Saudi Arabia, $85 in Oman and $98 in Bahrain.
The steady climb in oil prices during the past three years has reduced the pressure on public finances as their economies expanded.
Reports said the Saudi Arabian economy grew 1.6 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter, from 1.2 per cent in the first quarter. In 2017, the kingdom saw a contraction in its economy of 0.9 per cent. K V Joseph, another expert on migration, said though there will be demand for jobs in the Gulf, unlike during the 1970s and ‘80s, this time around only skilled professionals stand a chance.
Only those in the age group of 21-31 will be preferred, and those above 40 may find it tough to grab a job in the oil and construction sector.A reality that Thomas, the Gulf returnee, is well aware of. “I’m now above 50 years. The retirement age for workers in companies like CCC is 60 years. Now, the chances are bleak for people above 45 years,” he said.
Migration saw a decline in past five years: Survey
The latest Kerala Migration Survey had found there had been a 11.6 per cent decline (3 lakh people) in migration from the state between 2013 and 2018