There were so many factors going for her as Priyanka Gandhi Vadra took a formal plunge into politics on January 24. The Gandhi family lineage, her uncanny resemblance to grandmother, former PM Indira Gandhi, an infectious smile and effortless communication style had already made her a sight to behold. But that was restricted to the family bastions of Rae Bareli and Amethi where she would take charge of the campaign of Sonia Gandhi and party president Rahul Gandhi as the two would be out on the national duty during polls.
However, this time, the task given by brother was much more arduous—to revive the party in the state, which plays the most important role in deciding who rules in Delhi. Rahul’s move was further necessitated by the snub that the party got from the SP and BSP. So, 10 days after SP chief Akhilesh Yadav and BSP supremo Mayawati announced their tie-up without the Congress, Rahul sent Priyanka to UP as in-charge of 42 seats in the eastern region. The 38 seats of the western region were placed under the command of Gwalior royalty scion Jyotiraditya Scindia. Priyanka’s appointment was done with great suspense, with Rahul sending across a terse message to his secular mates that “Congress would no more play on the back foot.”
Her launch in Lucknow on February 11 was impressive. The Gandhi siblings led an enthused cadre through a 15-km road show in the state capital with a three-pronged message—showing strength to the ruling BJP, sending across a message to SP-BSP alliance by garlanding Ambedkar’s statue and infusing the energy in an otherwise inert Congress worker.
Much is at stake for the Congress in UP. Besides Priyanka’s own political future, the performance of the party under her leadership is under the lens. Congress workers believe that her arrival is a game-changer. “This time, the Congress may improve as it is a Lok Sabha election and the ruling BJP is facing double anti-incumbency in the state. The Priyanka factor will play a role but to what extent will be interesting to watch,” says political scientist AK Mishra.
Congress leaders and workers are enthused too. “The way Priyankaji is handling the party organisation, she will infuse life into the Congress, which is in a shambles and gasping after being out of power for three decades in UP,” says a senior Congress leader. The optimism in the party is drawn from the hope that her presence may help gravitate Dalits and Muslims from SP-BSP alliance and disgruntled upper caste from the BJP. “Priyanka’s entry will help wean away the BJP’s Brahmin voters who are upset with the saffron party because of the Centre’s mishandling of the SC/ST Act and also the special treatment meted out to Thakurs by CM Yogi Adityanath,” he adds.
The man on the street, however, may not have the same view. Be it Ram Sumer, 46, a tomato grower of Unnao or Kanpur-based industrialist Atul Seth, both says Priyanka factor may not have much impact on ground. Similarly, Ankita, 20, a student of Lucknow University, is impressed by the Gandhi scion’s charm but doesn’t see her political presence in 2019 against Modi’s nationalism.
Playing her cards strategically, Priyanka kicked off her first eastern UP campaign by taking a river route from the erstwhile Gandhi-Nehru bastion of Prayagraj to Modi’s Varanasi along the Ganga. In the avatar of a devout Hindu woman, draped in cotton saris and hopping from temple to temple, she never missed a chance to invoke her ‘Dadi Indiraji’.
Cutting out a political persona of her own, Priyanka unleashes attack against Modi government but without naming the PM, unlike Rahul’s favourite ‘Chowkidar chor’ jibe. “She addresses people, raises election issues but refrains from personal attacks sending out a more mature approach than the Congress chief,” believes SK Dwivedi, a social scientist.
During her river yatra, she also reached out to Dalits living on the banks of the Ganga. However, Opposition leaders dismiss it as a result of novelty factor. “The turnout at various banks along her 140-km yatra was more because of the curiosity to see Priyanka Gandhi rather her political appeal,” says a senior BSP leader. Priyanka’s Dalit outreach was reflected in her visit to ailing Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad in a Meerut hospital, which annoyed the BSP chief. The choice of Congress candidates, especially in western UP, is likely to dent the SP-BSP-RLD vote bank.
Ignoring 2014 as an exception, the Congress is focusing on 28 seats of which 22 seats are the ones it won in 2009, securing 18.5 percent votes. The rest six are those where the party had stood runner-up in 2014 under Modi wave.
“Notably, in 2009, the Congress had won 18 of 22 seats in eastern UP, which has upper caste dominance, especially the Brahmins along with Dalits and Muslims, who had voted for the Congress in 2009,” says Mishra, but adds that a decade is too long a period to change political contours of a region.
In 2014, the Congress was relegated to just two seats of Gandhi bastion with 7.5 percent vote share. The 2017 state polls followed the same pattern and the party was reduced to seven seats with 6.5 percent vote share.
Will the charisma of Priyanka shore up the Congress’s fortunes? The question is doing rounds in the political theatre of UP given the downslide of India’s Grand Old Party during the last three decades in the state.
After helming the most populous state of the country and the Hindi heartland till 1989, the decline has been consistent. This has been in sync with the party’s downturn even at the national level. After the 2017 UP Assembly elections, the Congress was reduced to a marginal player in the state. So much so that it was conveniently elbowed out by regional parties such as SP and BSP while stitching an anti-BJP alliance in the state for the 2019 Lok Sabha challenge.
With a respectable 94 assembly seats in 1989 to an insignificant 28 in 2012 with a prominent duck in 1998 is a testimony to this downward trend. Similarly, the party had 15 members in the Lok Sabha from UP in 1989. This number came down to two in the last 2014 General Elections when most of the Congress candidates lost their deposits.
The decline was such that the party dived to its lowest in 2017 UP Assembly elections when it failed to touch the double-digit and was restricted to just seven MLAs in a house of 403.
Being out of power for the past 28 years in UP, the Congress has been a party in disarray. Nearly defunct, it is gasping in the country’s political hotbed which plays a pivotal role in forming the government at the Centre by sending 80 members to the Lower House of Parliament. Bereft of presentable local leaders of mass appeal, the party high command was forced to introduce another Gandhi scion, Priyanka—touted as ‘Brahmastra’ up Rahul's sleeves—to ensure some resurrection in the state ahead of the big battle.
Minus the Gandhi family, there is no big, trustworthy, UP-centric face in the party. But that can hardly compensate the shortage of saleable leaders and near-defunct cadre at the grass-roots. After initial sessions of marathon meetings and a few visits, the general secretary in charge of eastern UP, Priyanka, realised that the party’s revival in UP was not easy. “The organisation needs to be overhauled and it will take time to bring it on track. I don’t have a magic wand to correct everything overnight,” she had said after her first visit to Lucknow, post her plunge into active politics. Aware of the ground realities, the brother-sister team is now targeting 2022 to make the Congress a formidable force in the state.
Even the state leadership is weak and disconnected with the electorate. The leaders seldom visit units in the districts to get a feel of the issues plaguing the party. If at all they tour, they visit only the district headquarters.
Even Rahul’s visits are mostly limited to pocket borough parliamentary constituencies—Rae Bareli and Amethi. This has alienated the party workers leaving them dejected and disillusioned.
Collapse of party organisation in the state is another bane. The state Congress Committee has hundreds of nominated officials. This shows how the organisational set up of the party is in a shambles. “Though the Congress has introduced Priyanka Gandhi as its USP, leaders on ground zero are far from common man’s issues. There is a conspicuous disconnect between the Congress and the public in UP,” adds Mishra.
Till recently and even now important party decisions are taken either in Lucknow or in Delhi without keeping the local leadership in the loop.