With the Opposition standing fragmented at the national level, the BJP finds itself on a comparatively easy wicket. Pulwama followed by Balakot action has brought the saffron juggernaut back in race in UP where it was facing a formidable challenge by SP-BSP and the caste calculus. However, the narrative around nationalism coupled with development pitch has renewed the confidence of BJP strategists to work out a fresh caste arithmetic. The changes brought about were reflected in its choice of candidates. While it stuck to the tried and tested formula, there was slight reconstruction to counter the joint SP-BSP-RLD equation with might.
Maximum changes have been made on the reserved seats. Most significant of them is approach on Agra and Shahjahanpur. While senior leader Ram Shankar Katheria was shifted to Etawah, he has been replaced by state minister SP Singh Baghel in Agra. BJP feels in the west, following the BSP-SP alliance, Jatav votes will considerably shift towards the Opposition. In Shahjahanpur, Arun Sagar has been named in place of sitting MP and Union minister Krishna Raj. The caste equations have also been reworked in Badaun. Against the SP’s Dharmendra Yadav, the party has brought in Sanghmitra Maurya, daughter of UP cabinet minister Swami Prasad Maurya. By fielding Sanghmitra, BJP has tried to woo non-Yadav backward community in the region. Yadavs, most likely, will be firmly tied to the SP.
Changes in the reserved seats of Hardoi and Misrikh have been because of non-performance. “There was adverse report against the sitting MPs from the two regions,” says a senior BJP leader. Moreover, re-nomination of MPs Sakshi Maharaj and Hema Malini from Unnao and Mathura respectively too came as a surprise. It seems BJP kept faith in the two big names. Also, denial of ticket would have sent a message of a worried party in face of an alliance, especially considering Mathura’s Jat factor and Unnao’s OBC vote bank.
Clearly, with the choice of candidates and repetition of a battery of senior leaders and Union ministers such as Rajnath Singh, Manoj Sinha, Anupriya Patel of ally Apna Dal, Satyapal Singh, General VK Singh and Mahesh Sharma on their seats across the state, the BJP has sent out a strong message. Similarly, Raghav Lakhan Pal from Saharanpur, old-time RSS worker Rajendra Agarwal from Meerut and Jat leader Sanjeev Balyan, an accused in the 2013 riots, will be re-contesting from Muzaffarnagar.
Of the three seats which the BJP had lost in last year’s bypoll, only Kairana has been announced where the party is trying to manage the Jat votes by preferring Pradeep Chaudhury over late Hukum Singh’s daughter Mriganka Singh. While Chaudhury is a prominent Jat face and a sitting BJP MLA from Gangoh, Mriganka had failed to capitalise on her father’s clout in Kairana by losing the seat to joint opposition candidate Tabassum Hasan in 2018 bypoll.
Candidates for the rest of the two seats—Phulpur and Gorakhpur—are yet to be announced. “It is an issue of prestige for the party. It will be done soon after due deliberations and keeping all the factors in mind,” says a senior BJP leader.
In Gorakhpur, the party is believed to be working on a strategy to win over the Nishad community by striking an alliance with NISHAD party. In the 2018 bypoll, NISHAD party chief Dr Sanjay Nishad’s son Praveen had defeated the BJP’s Upendra Shukla.
Another significant announcement was Union minister Smriti Irani’s candidature from Amethi. While she was all certain to re-contest from the ‘VVIP’ constituency, from where Rahul Gandhi is an MP, the announcement holds significance in the sense that the election in Amethi is in much later phase.