Chasing the poll mood, Namita Bajpai travels through Uttar Pradesh, the heartland of India’s political destiny, where caste and clan equations are being shuffled and reshuffled to stop Narendra Modi from returning as Prime Minister for a second term
It’s sundown in Harchandpur. Time for the small market of the Rae Bareli district’s block on NH 19 to come alive. It’s the time when men from the neighbouring villages along the highway to Allahabad head towards the market for their evening addas. It’s the only form of recreation they have known for generations. And if it’s election time, paan kiosks, tea shops, pakora carts, all turn into impromptu forums of discussion.
Finding a journalist amid them, a group at a tea stall in the market turns vocal. Nandu, a sharecropper, flashes three passbooks. Just a few hours ago, he has received Rs 2,000 in each of them. “Directly from Modiji,” he grins. This is the first instalment of the PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, announced by the BJP government for marginal farmers.
They all agree that never in the past have they seen such affirmative financial action. It seems to be adding to the strength of Brand Modi, already on the ascendance due to his ‘strong action against enemy Pakistan’. ‘Balakot’ and ‘Abhinandan’ (Wing Commander) are household names. A Modi supporter now doesn’t require any other reason to support him. “Can you name any other leader who has so much of guts to pay back Pakistan?” asks Sumati Pandey, 40, a school teacher in Sonia Gandhi’s pocket borough. “This election is of national importance. We can forget our local issues. Those can be tackled later. We can’t afford to have a weak Prime Minister,” he adds.
But, how can a ‘hail Modi’ resolution not be countered in Sonia’s bastion? “Rahulji’s (Congress chief Rahul Gandhi) ‘NYAY’ scheme will give six times more money,” retorts Jainendra Pratap Singh, 45, a small-time trader. He has a long list of contributions of the Congress to the country at his fingertips. The discussion soon turns into a Modi vs Sonia battle, fought by their self-acclaimed foot soldiers. Nobody has any doubt about Sonia’s invincibility from this family bastion, but some make the pain of ‘taken for granted’ too conspicuous. Comparison with development works in Varanasi makes the exchange even more intense.
The 300-km stretch between Lucknow and Varanasi via NH 30 and then NH 19, which is part of the historic GT Road, is a microcosm of UP’s voter profile. Lying between two extremes of BJP strongholds are Fort Sonia and pockets of influence of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). One also has to transverse through the ‘kingdom’ of Raja Bhaiya, the six-time MLA of Kunda in Pratapgarh district.
The scion of Bhadri estate, who has been a minister in both BJP and SP governments, has now floated his own Jansatta Party, and is eyeing a tie-up to make a bigger impact. Although there is no official word, the BJP is yet to announce candidate for Pratapgarh seat, fought by ally Apna Dal in the previous election.
Top issues
Nationalism /national security
Employment opportunities
Farmers’ distress—sugarcane dues, debt burden
Women’s security
Law and order
Better infrastructure
Corruption
Agriculture loan availability
Higher price realisation for farm products
Agriculture subsidy for seeds/fertilisers
Cow slaughter/
protection
Stray animal
Economy
Ram temple
in Ayodhya
Communal harmony
The debate at Monu Ka Dhaba in Rae Bareli is about the ‘Priyanka effect’. “More than the Congress, these elections are her acid test,” declares Brijesh Shukla, a second year commerce student. “She has been campaigning only in Amethi and Rae Bareli in the past. This time, her arrival has enthused the cadre, but will it have the same impact on voters?” he ends with a query.
After her Ganga Yatra from Allahabad to Varanasi, she has already finished her three-day trip to Amethi, Rae Bareli and Ayodhya, and created lots of buzz and sound bites. It was her maiden trip to the temple town, but she cautiously avoided going to the Ram janmabhoomi to ward off any controversy.
The 140-km distance between Allahabad and Varanasi along NH 19 used to be a breeze two years ago. Now, it is in a shambles due to ongoing construction works to add flyovers at all marketplaces on the stretch. The traffic crawls in the night when long-distance trucks mostly ply on the GT Road. “It’s a matter of another year,” says Dinesh Yadav, a tea stall owner. Agrees Shankar Jaiswal, a jeweller in Sigra area of Varanasi: “One has to bear some hardship for a better life in future. Nothing changes overnight.” But hasn’t GST and demonetisation broken the back of traders?
“Any new order brings some glitches initially. Aur yahan toh srijan hua hai (And here you have a new creation). We can bear with it for the sake of our future generations,” he concludes. There is no dearth of personal fan-following for Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati. Hare Ram Yadav, a farmer from Murlipur village of Unnao district, lists out Akhilesh’s achievements—Expressways, pension yojana, Kanya Vidya Dhan—and asserts he would vote for the SP which was much better than the present dispensation.
Ramesh Rawat sells cucumber near NH 30 toll plaza. He has been voting for ‘Behenji Mayawati’ for the past three elections. “Because only she can understand our plight. All others just make tall promises and do nothing for us,” he rues.
However, these being national elections, the BJP and Congress make it to discussions more frequently compared to regional forces SP and BSP. Scores of people whom this reporter interacted with across central UP felt that they would have voted for the SP-BSP alliance had it been the state election. “Their role at the national level is limited even if they win, so why to waste our vote,” says Matadin at Dahi Chauki Bazaar in Unnao.
In January, their historic tie-up was termed a game-changer. The pure caste arithmetic projects the alliance the most formidable on papers. But what’s on the ground? One can’t say for sure. Besides challenges of chemistry between the core voters of these two parties —Yadavs and Jatavs—the likely division of anti-BJP votes may spoil their prospects. “If the camaraderie between the leaders fails to percolate down, the entire effort of the tie-up would be nullified,” says JP Shukla, a senior political observer.
Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad, with considerable clout among Dalits especially in western UP, says the Congress should have been a part of any anti-BJP alliance. Chandrashekhar, who challenges PM Modi in his den, held a road show on March 30 to launch his campaign in Varanasi. “It (the alliance) appeared very promising earlier. But without the Congress, will they be able to prevent the division of anti-BJP votes?” he asks.
The alliance has also been rattled by the sudden exodus of their senior leaders, who were denied tickets because of 50 per cent drop in the seats each party would have contested. The Congress has given tickets to several such fresh turncoats. Many of them have also gone to Shivpal Yadav’s Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party-Lohia.
The sudden switching of sides to the BJP by the SP’s Gorakhpur MP Praveen Nishad is really intriguing. Nishads make a formidable 3.5 lakh chunk of electorate in Gorakhpur division. Son of NISHAD party chief Sanjay Nishad, Praveen contested on SP symbol to wrest the Yogi turf in last year’s bypoll. Early this week, the party, largely comprising Mallahs (boatmen) who have a sizable presence in eastern UP, announced to cement its ties with the SP. However, by the weekend, Sanjay accused the SP of not according due respect to his party and was seen hobnobbing with the BJP’s election in-charge for UP, Union minister JP Nadda and CM Yogi Adityanath. A stung Akhilesh didn’t lose time and announced the candidature of another Nishad—Ram Bhual Nishad—from Gorakhpur.
So far, Muslim voters, who play a key role in over two dozen seats—especially in western UP—are solidly behind the alliance at most places. In 2014, their vote made no impact because of reverse-polarisation of Hindu votes in the BJP’s favour and their representation from UP was nil. This time, they are cautious. “The community will vote for any candidate of opposition best placed to defeat the BJP,” says Parvez, 25, belonging to the weavers community in Varanasi.
“Since the alliance appears to be best placed, we will vote for it. It was during Akhilesh’s regime that we could get some relief. Others have remained ignorant to our plight,” says Zain, while weaving a Banarasi brocade on handloom. Similar pulse is found at most places barring the seats where the Congress is in direct fight, like Saharanpur.
Issues such as unemployment, law and order, farmers’ distress, sugarcane dues and stray cattle dominate discourse from the east to the west. “Four Cs—Caste, Community, Cow and Cane—would dominate these elections,” says Satpal Singh, a farmer in Pilibhit, the Terai belt. However, Ravi Kumar, a labourer in Muzaffarnagar and Amir Mantoee, a research scholar in Aligarh, feel that anyone should be voted but BJP should not be repeated. “Labourers are suffering. Daily wages have dipped considerably due to ban on mining,” says Mukesh in Hamirpur.
In the west, fresh from the incidents like the Bulandshahr unrest which claimed the life of a cop, and wranglings in Aligarh Muslim University, a considerable number of the electorate think that the communal divide has increased during the last five years and rightwing fringe organisations have become brazen.
But the central theme is Modi. Those voting for BJP would do so because of him. And those not would also do so be because of him.