The end of the Cold War led to fears of a unipolar world dominated by the US and its European NATO allies. India faced hostility and pressures on issues like nuclear nonproliferation and Jammu and Kashmir from the Clinton administration, before and after the nuclear tests. Studies then carried out by Goldman Sachs established that drastic shifts were inevitable in the global economic scene, with Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) set to emerge as major players in the global economy in less than half a century. South Africa was added to this group in 2011 and BRICS came into being.
The BRICS grouping has thereafter emerged as a significant voice in global economic forums. Moreover, with the passage of time, political-strategic issues like disarmament, outer space and developments in West Asia found mention in summit declarations. These declarations were at variance with dominant, interventionist Western thinking. But, within BRICS, China, with resources to stand against Western capitals, became the leading player, with initiatives like the Infrastructure Development Bank to challenge the World Bank. Institutions like the Contingent Reserve Arrangement also emerged to deal with global monetary issues, which, till then, were the IMF monopoly.
While India can be satisfied with the moves to end Western monopoly in dealing with global financial and monetary issues, it remains concerned at the dominant role that China plays in institutions linked to BRICS. India’s larger aim, however, remains that no single country or group of countries should dominate global politics and economics. India set itself two objectives for the BRICS meeting.
First, to make its position on Pak-sponsored terrorism clear, even if it meant locking horns with China. India has been fortified in this effort by the support from across the world, particularly from the US, Russia, major European powers, virtually all South Asian neighbours and even Arab countries like the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. India emerged with a new determination to squeeze Pakistan out of the emerging architecture for cooperation in South Asia. This was skillfully undertaken by inviting members of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)—comprising India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and Sri Lanka—to meet and exchange views with BRICS leaders, including China’s President Xi Jinping. The BRICS leaders were left in no doubt by their BIMSTEC counterparts of their outrage at acts of terrorism like the Uri attack.
The Goa Summit has familiarised visiting leaders like Russia’s Vladimir Putin about the extent of India’s outrage at cross-border terrorism. It is clear that while China is said to have expressed its unease at being required to undermine efforts by India and others at the UN on issues like having the Jaish-e-Mohammed as a global terrorist organisation, Beijing is unlikely to end its unconditional support to all-weather friend Pakistan.
This change can happen only when China begins to feel the costs of implementing projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Moreover while President Putin has made some friendly noises about our concerns, it will need much greater persuasion to get him to back off from his new-found love for Pakistan and his propensity to “engage” the Taliban in Afghanistan. Most importantly, our efforts to isolate Pakistan regionally should be pursued relentlessly and pressures mounted for its human rights violations against its Baloch, Pashtun and Muhajir communities. The policy that terrorism and talks cannot proceed at the same time has to be reiterated and made clear to the world.
The writer is a former diplomat
dadpartha@gmail.com