Pakistan has the dubious distinction of being the only country in the world where no prime minister has ever completed his/her mandated five-year term, over the past 70 years. In four instances, elected prime ministers have been ousted in military coups, leading to prolonged periods of military rule. In every case, the judiciary has buckled to the coercive power of the military and justified coups on a dubious ‘doctrine of necessity’. Nawaz Sharif was removed from office recently by a mind-boggling Supreme Court decision for not having declared, in returns he submitted to the Election Commission, a paltry sum of $2,700, which was due to him, but he never received.
Interestingly, the court included two military Intelligence officials with no knowledge of civil law, in the ‘Joint Investigation Team’ it constituted, to investigate allegations of undeclared properties and assets abroad, by the Sharif family. Virtually everyone in Pakistan knows that General Pervez Musharraf has properties in London and Dubai, and his successor, General Ashfaq Kayani, whose family members were alleged to have dubious financial dealings, lives in a villa in Sydney. The Supreme Court has never bothered to act against these worthy sons of Pakistan.
These developments are going to have serious implications for India and Afghanistan, who face an army, which is the fountainhead of cross-border terrorism. Sharif is the only political leader in Pakistan, who has public support and stature to at least raise questions about the adverse international repercussions of the army sponsorship of radical Islamic terrorist groups operating against India and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s new PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Foreign Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, who was earlier described as an ‘ornamental’ defence minister, are both new and largely untutored to the ways the military establishment manipulates the civilian establishment, media and judiciary, while remaining outside the realm of any civilian control. Pakistan’s foreign and security policies are now going to be under the total control of the military and ISI.
Any expectations that our ‘bleeding heart liberals’ may have of Pakistan relenting on cross-border terrorism against India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir, are unrealistic. Lashkar-e-Taiba cells in India will be activated to disrupt communal harmony and the blame laid on the Narendra Modi government. They will be emboldened in doing this by the viciously anti-India postures of strategic containment adopted by China. But, with the advent of the Trump administration and its avowed policy of acting against ‘radical Islamic terrorism’, there are signs of nervousness in the Pakistan military establishment about tougher US policies in dealing with ISI support for the Taliban and Haqqani network in Afghanistan.
India will now have to step up its already close cooperation with Afghanistan—in world capitals such as Washington, London, Bonn, Paris and Tokyo—in countering Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Denial of economic assistance by these countries will generate pressures within Pakistan, which is already confronting serious balance-of-payments problems. Saudi Arabia will have to be persuaded by the US and others not to step in with generous support to Pakistan. New Delhi would also be well advised to increase the costs for Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, by measured cross-border retaliation.
The nation has to be kept prepared for facing prolonged two-front threats, which will, sooner rather than later, be carefully coordinated. While we will have to stand alone in dealing with these security threats, there are many across the world who are tired of both Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, and the jingoism and territorial ambitions of China enforcing its territorial claims across Asia. dadpartha@gmail.com