Washington seems to be driven by short-sighted tactical agendas for Iran

The world is heading for a new multi-polar order.Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump’s meeting will be watched keenly.
US soldiers in Afghanistan
US soldiers in Afghanistan

The world is heading for a new multi-polar order.Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump’s meeting will be watched keenly. Trump’s electoral triumph has injected huge uncertainties in the geo-political scenario. Trump rallied against Islamic terrorism in his election rallies. He spoke of stopping Muslim immigration to the US. He called Pakistan the most dangerous country. He spoke of an outreach to Russia. Security experts in India were enthused by all these articulations. Trump was talking in clear black and white terms.

That is not how things panned out after he assumed office. The deep state in Washington torpedoed his outreach to Russia and the courts blocked his ban on Muslim immigration and visas. India has been hard-hit with curbs on H1B visas.

In a surprising volte face, Trump visted Saudi Arabia, from where the bulk of the 9/11 attackers came from. Saudi Arabia and Gulf states had bankrolled the rise of a virulent new form of Wahhabism. Any attempt to contain global terrorism implied curbs on Saudi funding of terror. After 9/11, the US had completely curtailed its oil dependence on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. It shifted its oil supplies to come entirely from its own hemisphere—Canada, Mexico and Venezuela. The US is now exporting oil. Only China, India, Japan and Southeast Asia are dependent on Saudi Arabian and Gulf oil. Unfortunately, their ability to influence outcomes in the Middle East is woefully limited.

In Saudi Arabia, Trump held a conclave of 35 Sunni heads of states and designated Iran as the primary source of terror. He concluded deals worth $350 billion with Saudi Arabia, with $150 billion for weapons. Iran has been aiding the Hezbollah and Hamas, and threatening Israel. It has been vying for influence in Iraq, Syria and Yemen through Shia militias/local regimes.

However, Iran was never seen as a source of global terrorism, the way Saudi Arabia was . The ISIS, Al Qaida and most jihadi organisations receive funds directly and indirectly from Saudi Arabia and Gulf sheikhdoms. Wahhabi mosques have been used as the primary incitory platforms. Trump seemed intent upon promoting a vicious Shia-Sunni faultline war in the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia leading the Sunni charge against the
Shias of Iran.  

What is of great concern for India is Pakistan’s role in this faultline war. Pakistan’s former Army chief, General Raheel Sharif, has been appointed the Generalissimo of the Coalition of Sunni states to lead the charge of Sunnis for the final Karbala war to exterminate the Shias. The CIA has drawn up elaborate plans for a covert war to destabilise the government in Tehran. As earlier in Afghanistan, the Saudi Mukhabarat would be expected to pour billions of dollars into this covert war. Michael D’Andrea has been made incharge of this covert war by the CIA. He had led the hunt for Osama bin Laden and is a formidable expert in covert operations. The plan is to incite ethnic minorities and Baluchi Sunnis in Iran to revolt.

India’s headache stems from the fact that Pakistan has again rented out its territory for the CIA’s jihad against Iran. The Iranian Army chief had warned Pakistan to restrain terror groups in its territory. Iranian forces have since opened mortar fire on Pakistan. The problem for India is that once Pakistan makes itself the bridgehead for destabilising Afghanistan or Iran, the Americans will put inordinate levels of pressure on India to stop retaliation against Pakistan for its terrorist depredations and to settle the J&K issue. This American pressure had prevented India from retaliating after 26/11. Pakistan is playing with fire as it seeks to destabilise Iran.

The blowback could be far worse than what it got from Afghanistan.
Pakistan has sold its territory to China for the CPEC. It cannot sell its territory to the US for a covert war against Iran. Pakistan could invite unintended consequences as harried neighbours close ranks to fight this rabid state. China’s $57 billion investment could be seriously jeopardised if Pakistan’s conflicts with Iran and India escalate. Once again, policy in Washington seems to be driven by short-sighted tactical agendas for dealing with Iran. China is a serious long-term competitor for the US. The US has made it easier for China to acquire military technology from Russia. In the next decade, the Chinese will have six aircraft carriers and 100 submarines.

The Pentagon’s focus is now on Iran (just as it was earlier on Iraq). How Russia and China react to the US’ moves in Iran could unleash large-scale conflict in the region. That could disrupt oil supplies to Asia and push up its prices. Russia and China may not be willing to stand by and see Iran being taken down. The conflict could singe Pakistan and severely impact Asia.
In such a scenario, India would do well to focus on its own national interests. We are not obliged to participate in any wars to destabilise Iran. We want to safeguard our citizens and towards that end, if Pakistan has to be chastised militarily, so be it.

Maj. Gen. (Retd) G D Bakshi

War veteran and strategic analyst

gagandeep.bakshi@yahoo.com

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