Political nuances reflected in the intimate environs around President Xi Jinping’s marathon address seemed to matter precious little to those chosen to attend the opening day to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on October 18. Xi was evidently presenting his case to delegates from across the country at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, for affirming his second successive term of five more years and putting forward yet another version of an economic leap forward. Contents of his 200-plus minutes’ address, thus, seemed largely on predictable lines.
Some things were, however, puzzling. Among the precautionary measures enforced on the sombre occasion was the ban on the use of international messaging module WhatsApp, which was officially banned during proceedings. This was at odds with the fact that China’s very economic and strategic sustenance depends on its depth of linkages with the global markets, premised on wholesale absorption of Western technological talent for improvisations.
According to media reports, few of the 2,287 delegates were taken by surprise. The existential majority that reigns today within the party seemed compliant. They seemed aware of the history of the stubbornly disciplinarian CPC, which has ruled China ever since the onset of the Long March in October 1934 under Mao Zedong. They were accordingly prepared for such measures. Yet oddities still prevailed in that; though delegates were allowed to express themselves, it is not clear whether those from Xinjiang or Tibet autonomous regions could have expressed their unease with the denial of fundamental rights to large chunks of Chinese minorities who inhabit these provinces.
Having emerged as China’s most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping or even Mao Zedong, Xi will try to use the congress to lay the foundation to extend his term for even longer than the normal 10 years. He will have a far greater ability to choose his colleagues than he had in the last congress held in 2012. It is because of this that the rest of the world, especially India, will have to keep a close watch on China.
A stronger and more confident Xi will not only find a new zeal to increase China’s global economic clout but can also flex its economic muscle in the region by investing in more infrastructure projects, giving it strategic as well as diplomatic heft at India’s expense.
The references to India in Xi’s long oratory were equivocal. He mentioned the Panchsheel Agreement, which was signed between China and India in 1954 and blatantly violated by China in 1962. The reference to the grand infrastructural outlay conceived by Beijing through the OBOR (One Belt One Road) initiative gave a clear notice that China will continue to ignore New Delhi’s objections.
In a reflection of how Xi is personally pushing his pet OBOR, the CPC congress passed an amendment to the party Constitution to specifically mention the plan. The Constitution enshrines Xi’s special status by including his eponymous ideological contribution, called “Xi Jinping Thought of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”. This elevates Xi’s status on a par with the CPC’s towering past leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping—the only other leaders mentioned by name in the Constitution.
It called to “build a community with a shared future for mankind”, a formulation Xi has often articulated on his foreign tours, to “follow the principle of achieving shared growth through discussion and collaboration”, and most importantly, to “pursue the Belt and Road Initiative”, as China calls the OBOR plan in English.
Xi wants to make China the number one global power by replacing the US, but finds a rising India as a stumbling block. India’s growing alliances in Indo-Pacific region (Japan, Australia and Southeast nations such as Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia) and with the US to rebalance China’s aggression is viewed as an obstacle by the Chinese regime. Xi would like to test India’s newly acquired confidence, especially with regard to Bhutan, to which India extends support whenever the Himalayan state faces a security threat under a special security arrangement.
Doklam may be over but China is not going to digest the humiliation that India inflicted on it. China may have pulled out of the border tussle due to the upcoming congress, it can escalate tension with India now that the congress is over. The Narendra Modi government’s efforts to gain supremacy in the region will come under serious challenge with a stronger Xi. The Indian Prime Minister’s Act East Policy will face strong resistance from China.
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