In any respectable democracy, the Army Chief is subordinate to and reports to the country’s Defence Minister, who is constitutionally responsible to the Parliament and people. Yet, on October 10, Pakistan’s army publicised a photograph together with an account of what transpired, when the country’s Defence Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan, called on its all powerful Army chief General Asim Bajwa in the Army’s GHQ. Myanmar is the only other “democracy” in the world where this happens.
But, in Myanmar, the Army chief is constitutionally empowered to control the Ministries of Interior, Defence and Border Affairs. There is no such constitutional provision in Pakistan. The reality is, however, that in Pakistan, the Army regards itself as a superior and separate instrument of State Power, which is not subordinate to the executive, or Parliament.
Military coups have occurred regularly in Pakistan. They were invariably held to be “constitutional”, by the Supreme Court, under a so-called “doctrine of necessity”. But, in recent years, the Pakistan Army has learnt that military takeovers involve their assuming responsibility for peace and progress—neither of which they can provide. What the Army, therefore, now seeks is “power without responsibility”. This involves allowing elections to be held and rule by spineless politicians, who allow incredible perks, powers and privileges for the Army.
The politicians then face the music, when things go wrong, on issues of governance and economic progress. The only Pakistani politician who was unwilling to cede absolute powers to the Army, Nawaz Sharif, has now been dismissed and barred from electoral politics by a supine judiciary, with the full support of the Army and Army-backed politicians such as Imran Khan.
The determination of the Army to secure absolute powers, with no responsibility has been ruthless and relentless. The Army has moved to ensure that virtually the entire Sharif family is charged with corruption and disqualified from electoral politics. Politically, measures are underway to get the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) to promote Nawaz’s brother, Shahbaz Sharif, to take over as Prime Minister. Shahbaz is known to have a more “soft” and “realistic” relationship with the Army than Nawaz.
Moreover, the worst-kept secret in Pakistan is that Shahbaz wants his son Hamza to be his heir, while Nawaz wants his daughter Maryam to take up the mantle of succession. This battle is tearing up the PML, the strongest national party. With elections scheduled next year, a hung Parliament and a weak coalition government are likely—a development the Army would welcome.
Meanwhile, the Army is consolidating its power relentlessly. With a manifestly inimical Trump Administration determined to curb the ISI’s support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, Gen Bajwa rushed to Kabul, to assure President Ashraf Ghani of his readiness to facilitate a peace process with the Taliban. Sensing the change in power equations within Pakistan, Saudi Crown Prince Salman invited Bajwa for discussions in Saudi Arabia.
The Army has left very little space for Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Foreign Minister Khwaja Mohammed Asif to have any substantive say in the conduct of foreign policy. It is also taking centre stage in providing security for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The Army has also for the first time moved into the realm of wielding greater influence in economic policies. Gen Bajwa waded into the conduct of economic policies, in a speech in Karachi on October 11, while seeking a greater say on utilisation of government finances. This naturally invited a countering response from the besieged Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar.
The emerging equations in Pakistan are now clear. While Pakistan may claim to be a democracy, an increasingly assertive Army establishment is progressively eroding the already limited powers of its elected government. ISI-sponsored cross-border terrorism is set to continue, till the Pakistan Army pays an unacceptable price for its actions. dadpartha@gmail.com