The seminar was in sync with the visit of the Foreign Secretary of India to the Bangladesh capital and included a session with him. Twenty-four hours in Dhaka and discussions with the hugely intellectual segment that makes up the city’s academic, diplomatic and military community, is sufficient to get a measure of the mood of the nation. I was returning after a gap of 24 months and much had happened in this period.
High on the agenda was obviously the Rohingya issue but even before that a prominent personality on the panel raised the issue of Army Chief General Bipin Rawat’s statement on the influx of people from Bangladesh into India through the machinations of China and Pakistan. I knew it was a sensitive thing and not something which would contribute to betterment of a relationship which has gone places in the last eight years or so.
I explained that the Chief of India’s Army would never allude to Bangladesh being complicit with any machinations to change demography in the Northeast. It was primarily a statement alleging Pakistan and China’s propensity to use territory of third countries to encircle India with anything which could contribute towards destabilising India. The Indian Army is still treated with much reverence in Bangladesh. Therefore the media reporting something negative about the country from the mouth of the Indian Army Chief is taken very seriously. Statements on these sensitive issues must per force be made with more care.
On the Rohingyas, I do think the Indian representatives present handled it rather well. I reminded people that we in India remember 1971 when a million refugees from Bangladesh entered our country and the hardship we had to undergo; the empathy flows from there. Bangladesh is now at the receiving end with little scope to reverse the flow or afford the expenditure to continue playing host. It needs empathy and financial support. I did explain the constraints India had in putting pressure on Myanmar due to our relationship being partially influenced by the China factor.
What the US and other western powers can do is pressurise Myanmar. If even one per cent of the displaced and harassed decide to become Jihadi fighters, we will all have a major problem on our hands. Equally important should be the role of Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia, all of whom will be at the receiving end should the Rohingya issue fester.
No one clearly says so, but the meaning is evident. In Bangladesh it’s felt that the passion with which they seek a positive relationship is not reflected in India’s attitude. I did privately explain that Bangladesh’s early history after the assassination of ‘Bangabandhu’ Sheikh Mujibur Rahman disappointed India and created an element of caution. Under Sheikh Hasina, the relationship has flowered and Indians are far less cautious. The problem is no one can be sure what the political situation will be by the end of the year. Unlike India where it hardly matters which is the government of the day dealing with Bangladesh, the reverse is not true.
There was a lot of emphasis on economics and people-to-people contact. The Indian High Commission at Dhaka issued close to 1.4 million visas last year. Bangladesh wants India to be supportive of its garment industry. However, the area where scope really exists is in the power sector. Scope for solar power in Bangladesh is low due to lack of deployable ground space. India can supply hydro power and thus lower Bangladesh’s dependence on gas and diesel-generated power. With the Teesta waters issue not on the horizon of resolution, India should be looking at connectivity as a major binder with Bangladesh. The optimum management of the economies of the northeast states can be best done through trans-Bangladesh connectivity and this is something we should look at seriously. atahasnain@gmail.com