The scam involving diamond dealer Nirav Modi has distracted us from many other dangerous developments that pose serious threats to India’s security. Not that the sum swindled—`11,000 crore and more—can be considered small change. But those who govern must learn to make a distinction between what is inevitably going to be a long-drawn battle in courtrooms to extradite the culprit and recover what the banks have lost due largely to their own complicity and matters that require quick diplomatic and strategic response in real time. It is the failure to do so that gave rise to apprehensions that the government is stretching out the ‘systemic failure’ at PNB to divert people’s attention from its own lapses.
The crisis in Maldives has seriously exposed the limitations of India’s capacity to protect its national interest in immediate vicinity. For a few years now it’s been clear that elements hostile to India have taken over the control of the once tranquil tourist paradise. The atolls have become a haven for hardcore Islamic fanatics who have succeeded in persuading a large segment of population that their ‘historic’ ties bind them to Arab lands and that their future destiny too beckons them away from India. More than one Indian High Commissioner has been humiliated while posted in Male and large contracts granted to Indian companies have been rescinded and gifted to Chinese companies.
India has opted for the classic policy of Masterly Inactivity. Now, Maldives is a micro state marked with specks barely visible on the map and we preen ourselves and prance about as the next emerging power on international stage but we have no problems when our utter impotence to safeguard our military and economic interests next door are concerned. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs issued a strong statement expressing its concern about the state of emergency by a dictatorial president accused of corruption and flouting the Constitution after indictment by the country’s Supreme Court and received a sharp stinging response just short of being told to mind its own business. Since then all we have heard is thundering silence.
It is not only in the Indian Ocean that serious trouble is brewing. Up north in abode of perpetual snow the chill in our relations with once so friendly Nepal is showing no signs of thaw. Khadga Prasad Oli has taken over as the Prime Minister and lost no time in resuming his overtures to China. Rebuffing the withered Olive Branch extended by Indians, he has raised the ante by announcing that he may in near future ban the recruitment of Gorkha soldiers in the Indian Army. This isn’t the place to discuss in detail who will get hurt more if the nose is slashed to spite the face but it needs to be pointed out that the days ahead are going to be full of painful uncertainty.
There are a large number of Gokha and other communities of Nepali stock who are Indian citizen-residents for centuries in Uttarakhand, West Bengal and Sikkim. Discord between India and Nepal can assume serious domestic dimension. Unfortunately, India has refused to acknowledge changed ground realities in Nepal ever since the Maoist revolt triggered a civil war resulting in the abolition of monarchy. Old memories continue to cloud our responses and South Block seems to swing like a pendulum between half-hearted intervention to awkward isolationism. The results have been and can only be disastrous.
The arrest of Khalida Zia in Bangladesh reminds us how insecure are all our eggs in that one basket there. Sheikh Hasina has been a good friend but is not without opponents who are waiting to destabilise her regime. Fundamentalist intolerance and aggressive interpretation of Islam totally alien to South Asia has managed to strike roots in Bangladesh. The number of those who look wistfully towards ‘fraternal’ Pakistan more favourably than friendly India next door may be small but their influence is spreading. Unfortunately, the issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh into Assam and West Bengal threatens to become explosive on the eve of elections. There are other contentious bilateral issues too.
Had it not been the sudden influx of Rohingyas, we wouldn’t have bothered to ‘Look East’ to Myanmar. The same indifference born of complacency mars our policy towards Sri Lanka. A slight improvement in relations lulls us into a false sense of security. Mahinda Rajapaksa is girding for another decisive battle to regain power and India may well be in for more unpleasant surprises in near future.
This list of diplomatic flounders is far from complete. There seems to be no end to fumbling and continuous and confusing course corrections in the realm of tax reforms, wrangling with judiciary and total inability to punish ‘sympathetic’ vigilantes who continue to flout the rule of law with impunity. It is anybody’s guess how long can the glitter of diamonds keep even the most gullible distracted.
Former professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University
pushpeshpant@gmail.com