Some would say, “The plot thickens”. Others may prefer to hedge their bets and await future developments with bated breath depending on how they feel the crumbling cookie is going to impact their lives. But there is no denying the fact that the ‘End Game’ for 2019 has begun. The Shiv Sena has declared that it will contest the Lok Sabha polls on its own and the Telugu Desam Party has ‘withdrawn’ its ministers from the Central Government. The SAD and PDP are more albatross round the BJP’s neck rather than useful allies. There are rumblings of resentment, if not revolt, from more aggressively inclined disgruntled members of what is called the Sangh Parivar about the delay in construction of the Ram Temple.
There are other ominous signs. Losses in by-elections in Rajasthan are particularly humiliating. Sachin Pilot has proved himself to be more than a match for the regal chief minister. CPI(M) was vanquished in Tripura but the vandalism that followed in a stunning victory’s aftermath took much of the sheen off it. Bulldozing of Lenin’s statue triggered so strong a backlash that the PM had to step in to damage control.
By the time these lines are printed the results of by-elections in Gorakhpur and Phulpur will be out. More straws in the wind and not always easy to read scribbling on the wall will continue to baffle analysts as the countdown clock ticks louder.The real test will come in Karnataka and Odisha. Butterflies may not yet be fluttering in the stomachs of backroom boys but the larvae have begun to break out of their silky cocoons. What else explains the welcoming of uncouth Naresh Aggrawal—a reject from the SP into the BJP fold?
The Old War Horse announced his arrival in the new stable by bad mouthing Jaya Bachchan in so crass a manner that Sushma Swaraj was constrained to state that his comments weren’t welcome or acceptable. This begs the question then why is he welcome and acceptable? How are the other senior BJP leaders in Uttar Pradesh going to ‘welcome and accept’ him? Shall we say that in this case SP’s gain is going to prove BJP’s loss?
The once dazzling diplomatic footwork seems to be faltering too. Nepal’s KP Oli has administered an unmistakable snub to India by hosting the Pakistan Prime Minister as his first guest after assuming office as PM. This has followed a similar rebuff from tiny Maldives to Indian overtures to break ice. As if this wasn’t enough, the new foreign secretary didn’t exactly cover himself with glory by issuing an advisory that ministers and senior officials should steer clear of the 60th anniversary celebration of the Dalai Lama’s arrival in India.
There can be no doubt that India has blinked in ‘out-staring the confronting bully’ competition. All the bragging post-Doklam has in one stroke been exposed as miserable posturing. The same message could have been communicated much more discreetly. PM Modi’s efforts to forge viable options bringing together a set of strategic alliances to cope with Chinese expansionist designs have been frittered away in a blink. Xi, now President for Life, sensing the timidity in the South Block can become even more distressing a bully.
The French President’s visit—postponed according to reports at India’s request—has certainly been better handled than the Justin Trudeau fiasco but it has given the Opposition an opportunity to rake up the ‘Rafale Deal’ controversy. The 66th Nation Solar Summit that coincided with ‘Bonjour India’ will be remembered more for the traffic snarls it generated than any electrifying impact.
If the top leadership of the BJP isn’t alarmed by the multiple ringing bells, it’s only due to the reassuring presence (or absence) of Rahul Gandhi in the political arena. In India, Italy or Singapore he can be relied on to provide the reassurance that as long as he is at the helm, the Congress will remain incapable of presenting any serious challenge. He will also ensure that the TINA factor remains strong in favour of Narendra Modi.
From Mamata didi to Maya behenji, Akhilesh bhaiyya to Naveen babu there are many contenders who believe they can forge and lead a united front of Opposition parties but none has so far succeeded in establishing any credibility. ‘Scams and scandals’ from Vyapam to banking frauds have so far failed to tarnish the PM’s image. But will this be enough to emerge victorious in the electoral battle?We have said it before and it is worth repeating—it’s the state of the economy that will ultimately decide the NDA’s fate. The jobless youth and starving farmers pose a serious threat not only to the desired majority in the Parliament but also to the stability of the nation.
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