NEW DELHI: Though a bit beaten in the Rajya Sabha, there’s little sign of the Narendra Modi magic waning in the people’s assemblies. Or so it appears from the exit polls on Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir on Saturday. The predictions are: a clean sweep by BJP in the tribal state which is yet to see a single-party rule; and an impressive tally in strife-torn J&K, which looks set for a hung assembly.
If the exit poll predictions come true, this too will be a record of sorts, both for the BJP and the states concerned — one that could even break the Opposition’s resolve to stall bills in the Rajya Sabha. The government may have the last laugh on the last day of the winter session — counting of votes is on December 23.
Early predictions by ABP News-Nielsen show the BJP getting 52 out of the 81 seats in the Jharkhand Assembly.
Today’s Chanakya (which has had a high rate of success in psephology the past few
elections) put the BJP tally as high as 61 (+/-8) seats, with the Congress ending up with a meagre four seats, compared to 21 it won in 2009.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the exit poll predictions are not very different from what has been projected in media reports during the elections and the campaigning: it’s likely to be a hung House with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) emerging as the single largest party.
The C-Voter poll is predicting 32-38 seats for PDP in the 87-member Jammu and Kashmir assembly, with the ruling National Conference down to 8-14 seats and the Congress 4-10 seats.
This is exactly how internal reports of the parties also indicated. BJP is, however, likely to fall much short of its Mission-44 target. India TV has put its likely tally in the state at 27-33 seats with a lion’s share, 25-31, coming from Jammu region.
Hours before the exit polls started their predictions, polling took place in 16 constituencies of Jharkhand spread over six districts of Dumka, Godda, Sahebganj, Jamtara, Deoghar and Pakud in Santhal Pargana region. In J&K, voting took place in 20 Assembly constituencies, mostly in the border districts of Jammu, Kathua and Rajouri in the fifth and final phase of this round.