It Will Be BJP Vs BSP in 2014 LS Elections in UP
With the Scheduled Castes and Muslims, who make up a decisive vote bank in majority of UP’s 80 Parliamentary constituencies, still viewing the BJP as a ‘no-go’ zone it will be an uphill task for the main Opposition party to realise its dream of securing 60 seats in the politically crucial state to waltz its way back to power after a decade-long hibernation.
Despite the uphill nature of the task, BJP state in-charge,Amit Shah had admitted that the main contest in UP would be between the BJP and the pro-Dalit BSP since the Congress had been rejected by the people while the SP had lost its popular appeal and shine within two years of the party coming to power in the state.
Adding to the BJP’s woes, it had failed miserably to project a Dalit leader, who could challenge BSP chief Mayawati’s stature. As a result, the party was unable to wean away the Dalits from the BSP camp despite the pro-Dalit party losing the 2012 UP Assembly polls. According to the latest census, there are 32 LS seats, which have a significant Muslim electorate. And in places like Rampur and Moradabad, Muslim voters make up 49 per cent and 45 per cent of the electorate respectively.
Similarly there are 51 seats with a Dalit population of up to 45 per cent.
Also, there are over 50 constituencies, where the Dalits and Muslims jointly make up more than 40 per cent of the electorate. And this is precisely what the BSP is working on, albeit silently.
At 23 per cent, Western UP has the highest concentration of Muslims in the state, while Bundelkhand is at the bottom of the table with Muslims accounting for just six per cent of the region’s population.