Decadal Forecast System on the Anvil
NEW DELHI: As the impact of global warming becomes quiet visible with changes in weather pattern across the globe, the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences is in the process of launching a “decadal weather forecast” which will enable the government and policy makers to plan mitigative measures to deal with the impacts of climate change like the poor monsoon or excess rainfall.
The ministry is developing a model which can give weather predictions about temperature and rainfall in the next one decade. The model is expected to be operational in three months and the scientists are in the process of validating the system with the past climatic data.
Talking about the efficacy of the system, a secretary in the ministry, Shailesh Nayak, said it would be a big thing for the country as it would give the government an opportunity to plan measures to handle the situation arising out of erratic weather conditions in future. “We will provide data related to average expected rainfall and temperature between 2015 and 2025 or further. Now, the governments will have time to take measures like what kind of crops need to be sown and increasing the water storage capacity,” said Nayak.
The project was part of India’s programme on climate change and its development took around three or four years. The budget for the whole climate change programme is around `80 crore. The forecast will be updated after proper intervals, taking into account new factors.
The model will consider natural changes in the climate, human factors like greenhouse gases and the increasing number of vehicles, among others. Having a system that forecasts weather patterns well in advance is of great importance as a study by the Ministry of Environment and Forests assessing climate change for 2030s indicated an overall warming.
It says the net increase in annual temperatures in 2030s with respect to 1970s ranges between 1.7- 2.2 degrees Celsius, with extreme temperatures increasing by 1-4 degrees Celsius, with the maximum increase in coastal regions. Moderate to extreme drought severity is projected in 2030s for the Himalayan region.