This Assembly election in Punjab is an exceptional one: the long-standing bipolar electoral system in the state is likely to end with the emergence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as the third winnable party. Irrespective of the seats it wins, it has clearly emerged as a game changer by forcing the Congress and Akali Dal to address critical issues like drugs, corruption, agrarian crisis and dynastic rule. Also, for the first time in Punjab’s electoral history, a non-Punjabi speaking outsider is being compared with stalwarts like Badal and Amarinder Singh. The AAP’s electoral career in Punjab commenced with the 2014 Lok Sabha election when it won 24.4 per cent of the vote and four out of the 13 constituencies, and finishing third in eight constituencies (34 of the 117 Assembly segments). That performance defied received electoral wisdom, as AAP did not have a recognizable leadership, organization, support base, electoral agenda or the winnability factor.
Arguably, that success may be attributed to the party’s success in garnering the support of the youth. In Punjab, 53 per cent of voters fall in the age group of 18-39. More crucially, out of 1,99, 63,346 eligible voters, 9,68,128 fall in the age group of 18-19. In a CSDS-NES poll survey held after the 2014 election, 40 per cent of young respondents in the 18-35 age group reported voting for the AAP. The survey also revealed that youth credited AAP more than they credited any other party for raising their critical concerns like issues of drugs, mafia style corruption, unemployment, widespread use of coercion by men in power.
Learning their lessons, the older parties have this time taken note of the youth as a distinct voting category. Evidence of this is in their manifestos as well as their campaign strategies. The Congress manifesto promises at least one job to every household (55 lakh ) in the state, a stipend of Rs 2,500 for the jobless, an end to the drug menace within four weeks of coming to power, and one-lakh taxis/commercial vehicles every year for unemployed youth. The BJP and Akali Dal also promise 10 lakh jobs over five years, free laptops and free higher education for girls. To address the youth aversion for corruption, Akali Dal even pledges to appoint a Lokayukta if voted to the power for the third time. AAP, however, has again trumped its rivals by coming out with a separate youth manifesto. The party makes elaborate promises to the youth like 25 lakh new jobs in five years, entrepreneurial/skill centres, end to favouritism in public employment, improved schooling, special laws to give life terms for drug traffickers, end to corruption/crony capitalism and also appointment of a Jan Lokpal.
The campaigns of different parties also show a sense of urgency to connect to the youth. While all the three parties promise better internet connectivity, the Congress has taken the lead by promising 50 lakh smartphones to youth who participate in its ‘Captain Smart Connect’ campaign. Amarinder Singh also launched ‘Coffee (and not Lassi) with Captain’ mainly to connect with the urban youth in small gatherings across the state. The Congress high command’s policy of ‘one family one ticket’ is also aimed at the youth who abhor nepotism. Sukhbir Badal has launched a ‘Youth for Punjab’ campaign to make them aware of the development work done by the government in the past decade. All the parties have used the social media to connect to the tech-savvy youth but here too the AAP has the edge.
What has facilitated the emergence of youth as a secular voting category is the decline of the identity-based electoral agenda in the post-Blue Star decades. Though populism reigns supreme, there is increased focus on development and governance. Militancy is not viewed by the youth as a factor in the flight of industry as the Congress and Akalis would have them believe. They blame it on corruption, crony capitalism, greed and highhandedness. Arguably, the youth of Punjab have been most affected by the endemic economic crisis and their sense of despair is evident in the clamour to move to the West even illegally. Here AAP as a new party appeals to them. What also endears them to AAP is the unequivocal support of the Punjabi diaspora who are seen as iconic figures by the youth. AAP putting up mostly candidates with no corruption or criminal charges or any political background is another plus point in the eyes of the youth.
Ashutosh Kumar is a professor in the Department of Political Science of Panjab University, Chandigarh