NEW DELHI : The southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 30, instead of the usual June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.“The statistical model forecast suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be close to the normal date.
The southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of ± 4 days,” the weather office said on Tuesday.
The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent and represents the beginning of rainy season over the region.
The normal monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1.The southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea normally around May 20 with a standard deviation of about one week.
This year it reached Andamans six days in advance.“The formation of a cyclonic circulation over the Andaman Sea has resulted in strengthening and deepening of cross equatorial southwesterlies and persistent convective activity and rainfall over the region during the past few days.
As a result, the southwest monsoon has advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, entire south Andaman Sea and parts of north Andaman Sea on May 14,” said a statement issued by the IMD.
Conditions are now becoming favourable for the further advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of southwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and the remaining parts of Andaman Sea, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and some parts of east central Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours.The IMD has forecast a normal monsoon this year. Good rainfall is important as several states, especially southern ones, are reeling under severe drought.