Meghalaya has the distinction of having maximum coalition governments, yet no mid-term elections. In the Assembly elections held on February 27, the obvious question that crops up among voters, political class and pundits is whether Meghalaya will again vote in a hung Assembly or whether there will be a clear mandate for a single-party government.
Although it is debatable whether a coalition government creates an environment of instability, uncertainty and underdevelopment, Meghalaya has not suffered from instability in spite of having coalition governments. Nevertheless, the complex interplay of tenuous demographic, ethnic fissures and a fragmented party system has led to deep uncertainties with regard to the electoral outcome in the Assembly elections.
Meghalaya, being a small state with about 18 lakh voters, has a different demographic composition. The Khasis and Jaintias live on the eastern side and the Garos on the western side of the state. Linguistically, they are so different that the Garos do not understand the Khasi Jaintia language at all and vice versa. This lack of communication has its impact on the politics of the state. Two long-serving chief ministers are from the Garo region.
The purpose of stating this fact is that there are frequent demands from many quarters for a separate Garo state. In these Assembly elections, it is an issue among some regional actors.
There has been comparatively less festivity among political parties at the time of elections this time and no burning issue has dominated the campaign. Development, illegal migration, coal mining, civic facilities such as water crisis, education, health care, traffic congestion etc. are the regular issues in every election. Door-to-door campaigning, rallies, public gatherings and sloganeering are the methods that the candidates have adopted.
But what makes this election special is that, for the first time, national leaders across parties are taking a keen interest in the electoral politics of the state. The BJP, after its successes in Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, is eyeing other North-eastern states for its presence, if not success. The way it fought the Tripura elections on February 18 is an example of its seriousness in electoral politics. Similar is the case with the Congress party, which has sent a long line of central leaders to attract voters. After a long time, the Congress-led government under the Chief Ministership of Mukul Sangma is going to complete its full term. So the anti-incumbency scare is there among its leaders. Further, the aggressive strategies of BJP star campaigners are putting the Congress leaders in a do-or-die situation.
The PA Sangma-founded National People’s Party, which did not fare well in the 2013 Assembly elections, is trying to make a comeback in a bigger way. It is banking primarily on voters who are dissatisfied with Congress rule. At the same time, it is trying its best to come out of its public perception as a Garo-based party.
It is expected to garner more support from the electors in this election. Another important player in the election is the United Democratic Party (UDP), which is in a pre-electoral alliance with other regional parties like the Hill State People’s Democratic Party (HSPDP). Meghalaya has always had the typical feature of post-electoral alliances. Although parties parley for electoral understanding much before the elections, they fail to arrive at any positive conclusion at the time of actual battle due to intransigence on seat-sharing, common minimum programme, development priorities, etc. However, post-election reality compels them to come together to keep (mostly) the Congress party out of power.
The People’s Democratic Front (PDF), which has emerged on the political scene due to internal bickering in the Congress party, is trying to woo the voters by discrediting its original root. Its founder, P.N. Syiem, who also happens to be the Chief Executive Member of the Khasi Hills Autonomous District Council, defied the party directive and openly challenged Mukul Sangma. When he was sidelined by the party leadership, he preferred to come out of the Congress and form a political front of his own. So many disgruntled elements are aspirants for party ticket from the PDF.
In these elections, four parties have fielded candidates spreading over the whole of Meghalaya. The Congress is the only party that has fielded candidates for all constituencies, followed by the NPP in 52 constituencies, the BJP in 47 constituencies and the UDP in 35 segments. Altogether, 15 political parties and 84 Independent candidates are in the poll battle. Other non-serious parties are in the fray to merely register their presence on the electoral scene like the Republican Party of India and the Republican Party of India (Athawale). Similarly,the North East India Development Party, originating from Manipur, is testing the political waters in Meghalaya for the first time by contesting only one seat.
Further, the state throws up an interesting case of a colossal gap between the cultural and political factors wherein women’s participation in the poll battle is discouraging in spite of the fact that societies in the state are matrilineal and more women candidates are there this time compared to the 2013 elections. Out of a total of 370 candidates, there are only 32 women candidates.
No doubt, women in the state are far better-off compared to other parts of the country in so far as their social status is concerned, but this empowerment has not been successfully transformed on the political front. Leading political parties do not show keen interest by pushing women candidates forward into the poll fray with several pretexts like winnability, lack of interest from the women members of the party.
All constituencies are facing multi-cornered contests, creating an environment of unpredictability about the outcome. The constituencies are very small in comparison with other states wherein the presence of so many contestants has made the voters really empowered as they have almost direct acquaintance with their candidates. So the voters are fully aware of the background of their leaders. Even though civil society organisations are apparently neutral, they may play some role in influencing the voters.
Meghalaya, most of the time, has preferred a national party over others. The NPP, which is building an image of a national party, is trying to give a tough fight in this election. The UDP is the only credible regional party which has a vote base in a few pockets of the state as its record shows. It is to be seen if the NPP, which is the alliance partner of the BJP at the Centre, will have an understanding with the latter. But it all depends upon the BJP’s performance in the election. The state, perhaps, is bracing up for post-electoral political realignment among influential actors.
(RK Satapathy is Professor in the Department of Political Science, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong)
