NEW DELHI: The BJP-led NDA may get less than half of the seats it won in Uttar Pradesh in last Lok Sabha election and its tally could go down from 73 to 30-35, according to predictions by brokerage firm Ambit.
Its report predicts that overall the Bharatiya Janata Party could win 190-210 seats and the NDA could get 220-240 seats. This would necessitate a post-poll alliance with regional parties to form the government.
The report predicts the SP-BSP vote share in Uttar Pradesh to be 45 per cent and that of BJP to be 34.2 per cent.
It says that ebbing of Modi wave could be a factor in the BJP tally going down but also notes that there is a consolidation of Hindu vote due to factors such as the cow slaughter ban.
It also notes that BJP workers are mostly targeting the Samajwadi Party and there could be the possibility of the Bahujan Samaj Party joining the BJP after the election results.
The report's predictions are based upon meetings with politicians, small shopkeepers and businesses and academicians in Gorakhpur. These have been used for projections at the national level.