It was the Big Gipper Ronald Reagan who famously said “Status quo, you know, is Latin for the mess we are in.” And a mess, doubtless, India is in. For 18 months now, India has been in a state of deshabille. Every move of the Government — executive or legislative—seems to be an action replay of failure. Every attempt to move forward invokes the imagery of classic management parody, all motion and no movement. Phrases like paralysis, stasis, stupor and inertia now punctuate living room discussions on governance.
The problem is clearly located in the arithmetic of the House. What we are witnessing is the political outcome of this arithmetic. Despite emerging with an enhanced strength in 2009, the Congress finds itself weaker. Never before has the weakness of a regime been as obvious as in the past weeks of December. Every move of the Government has been tripped at the altar of numerical morality. Each time the Government has been stalled, it has offered a goblet of stale whine on the lack of majority as funereal explanation. The truth is that numerical majority is the morality of democracy. Either you gobble it or you cobble it.
It was never a secret that the Government was in minority. In fact, the UPA I and II have been conceptual majorities, depending on a seasonal crop of political support at every crisis. The mistake that Congress made in the architecture of UPA II is that it confused convenience with conviction. Geneticists would tell you that kin selection is critical for the stability of the species. The same holds true of political alliances. The Congress chose quantity without concerning itself with consistency. It replaced the Left with Trinamool Congress and exchanged stability for turbulence. None of the allies can be accused of all weather dependability, political expediency rules.
The outcome of political arithmetic has been stasis—governance at a standstill. The Congress could argue that this is not of its doing, but it cannot escape accountability. It is high time the Congress found a way out of this pretentious existence. Edmund Burke once observed that “no politician can make a situation. His skill consists in his playing the game dealt to him” using the times and circumstances. Time and circumstance beckon the Congress. It should simply call it sine die and seek a fresh mandate. In the debate on the Lokpal bill in the Lok Sabha last week, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made an effort to list out the achievements of the UPA. If the Government is convinced it has tried its best but is crippled by lack of numbers, then it must make its intention its election plank and seek a fresh mandate.
And there is historical precedence that the party must seek to acquaint itself with. Following the split in the party in 1969, Indira Gandhi found herself faced with a similar situation of inadequacy and incapability. The party’s strength in the House of 520 was around 225. She recognised that status quo would be worse than disruption. She didn’t balk at the prospect of the unknown, of defeat. She could have lingered on but she did not.
On December 27, 1970—15 months before the scheduled date for polls —her Cabinet advised the President of India to dissolve the Lok Sabha. Indeed her address to the nation was her opening campaign speech. Explaining her decision, she said: “We are not merely concerned with remaining in power, but with using that power to ensure a better life to the vast majority of our people and to satisfy their aspirations for a just social order. In the present situation, we feel we cannot go ahead with our proclaimed programme and keep our pledges to our people.” Within weeks, riding on the now famous Garibi Hatao slogan, she returned to power winning 352 seats out of 518 seats.
Timing in politics is about instinct. It is also about the state of the Opposition. The BJP may have the larger share of the decibel level but is it in a better position than it was in 2009? It has its own unique identity problem. On the plank of reforms, it has alienated its urban voter. It needs to expand its reach and discover the retail end of political activism, but has been obsessed with alliances at the wholesale level.
Pranab Mukherjee delights in pointing out how the BJP contested in 411 seats in the last Assembly polls and won only five. In the recent municipal polls in Maharashtra, it trailed at fourth place. Its survival in Uttarakhand is iffy and isn’t any better in Punjab where its ally, Akali Dal, is better known for scandals and members who slap women in public. Uttar Pradesh, where it must revive to be in the race for Delhi, exemplifies the confusion within. Insiders reveal that a third position will now be declared a victory.
If the UPA believes in its programmes, then it should stake its bets. The conventional wisdom within the Congress is “what would we gain by quitting now”. The counter to that would be: what can it hope to gain by staying on! The Congress believes that it has done well by the people—in pushing MNREGA, the Food for Security Act and in promoting the opening up of the economy—but has been tripped in the temple of democracy. If so, then it must take its prayers to the people.
Some Congressmen believe a victory in Uttarakhand, Punjab and a supporting role in Uttar Pradesh will empower them politically and end the paralysis. Why stop halfway? Why not use the good tidings and seek a fresh mandate? Why not substitute Garibi Hatao with Bhookh Mitao? Every additional day will cost the party its future. A government that cannot act like a government is no government. It is a state of affairs India cannot afford.
The opinions expressed in this column are the author’s own
Shankkar Aiyar is a senior journalist who specialises in the politics of economics