The nation’s hopes for a miracle in 2013 have been dashed by the death of the Delhi gangrape survivor in Singapore. Times have changed and I have never before seen an event of this nature moving the conscience of the entire nation. In the past two days, we have heard of hundreds of cases all over the country; as I write this, we have news that a 17-year-old girl in Punjab who was gang-raped has committed suicide. What can one say in this situation?
It’s time to divert our mind to the economic situation and all the negativity being generated around us. As a major global player, we have to look at the big picture. We face a challenging situation in 2013, and I have written earlier that this year could be much worse than the one gone by. All I see does not inspire much hope for a good revival. No government plans for a decline. The commerce minister is looking for positives, and I do hope we will be successful but the 8 per cent GDP growth rate projected in the 12th Plan is very optimistic and I have severe doubts if this can be achieved if the first two years are at 6 per cent.
We are well aware of the economic situation in the UK and south Europe and we have seen several desperate measures adopted in the last year. Few seem to have worked, and excessive liquidity conditions have not led to any upsurge in productivity. Europe has a GDP in excess of the US and a negative or a flat growth rate will affect all of us. In the Middle East and North Africa, we have a region in chaos and anarchy. Sadly, after violence and death in Libya, we see a civil war situation and massacres in Syria where the casualty figure is in excess of 50,000 and is rising by the day. Tunisia was a rare exception where the change was peaceful. Egypt is still struggling, and anything can happen as its economy lies shattered. What can one say about the daily bomb blasts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and about the regime in Pakistan. We have commercial interests in these countries.
We mean everyone well but high internal consumption cannot sustain us from a steep decline in exports and I think it will be a miracle if we can manage 6 per cent growth in 2013. This will have serious implications in several fields. The rising middle class is already at ‘war’. The discontent is quite visible, and when a section of society agitates on any one issue, the anger goes into several other fields as economic discontent and uncertainty exists and no one has a miracle cure. The middle class boomed during the 8-plus per cent growth era across multiple fronts, and now they are caught in a situation where incomes and opportunities are shrinking. Extreme negativity prevails.
I had said that the Himachal election would tell us if the voter in the hill state next to Delhi will be affected by the ‘disaster’ syndrome we face every day on our TVs and in our tabloids, both of whom have their own compulsions to find negatives with authority, and question every decision and initiative for instant judgments by expert panels. The results in Himachal and Gujarat indicate that none of this matters. The aam aadmi is a few steps ahead and, instead of reacting to negatives, voted for the future with a very ‘positive’ bias. This is well reflected in the margins and if the elections had gone on for a few more days, then it is possible that the Congress would have won by a bigger margin in Himachal as the BJP would have in Gujarat.
The New Year is upon us and our thoughts are with those who have suffered and continue to suffer. As a nation, we have much to do. This is not something where we can apply statistics as every human tragedy is a huge loss for the individual and life changes forever for affected families. We are all human, and are outraged, disgusted and very angry but we must all find a way to positively create the changes necessary in our laws and attitudes.
Arunnehru89@yahoo.in
Nehru is a former Union minister