China’s double-talk over current naval developments was obvious when the other day, speaking at a strategy conference in New Delhi, its Ambassador in India Le Yucheng reacted sharply to the trilateral naval exercise ‘Malabar’ in the north-east part of the Indian Ocean. The naval exercise with aircraft carriers and planes besides participation of other warships, involves India, Japan and the US. Earlier, the Malabar event was planned as an India-US naval exercise but Japan has been accepted as the third partner at its request last summer. “India should ensure that initiatives like the trilateral maritime arrangement or defence ties with other countries are conducive for peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific region,” the Ambassador observed. The defence ties the Chinese Ambassador was referring to pertain to the Japanese offer of several defence technologies to India finalised during the recent visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to New Delhi.
Even if we grant that such concerns on the part of Beijing are “legitimate” as the Ambassador described them, equally legitimate would be India’s concern when Le’s country signs a 10-year agreement with Djibouti on the African horn at the entrance of the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden and by geography, the Indian Ocean also. China has acquired not just naval and trade vessels’ docking point at Djibouti but also a naval logistics base there. The explanation from Beijing — for what all practical purposes points to a naval base which it could also expand — is that it is merely for tackling anti-pirate moves. This is an explanation no one will accept on the face of it, because the Somali-based ocean pirates are largely under control due to the combined operations of navies of several countries and other steps.
The long-term nature of the Chinese base there is a clear indicator of Beijing wanting to obtain a place to oversee the maritime traffic into the Gulf and the Indian Ocean through which a major part of the energy carrying and container traffic pass for the entire South, South-east and East Asian nations.
Naval strategists aver that any country having such rights at this African enclave nation could dominate and command this vital traffic. For two of East Asia’s most industrialised nations, South Korea and Japan, these maritime trade routes are their jugular link. For India too, this trade route is extremely vital. China merely dismisses all concerns of countries like India as exaggerated but when India and Japan strengthen their navies or merely hold exercises in coordination to meld their strategies, Beijing gets highly excited and issues a warning to New Delhi. This is typical of Beijing’s doublespeak on several issues of real peace and freedom of use of maritime routes in the Indian Ocean. This doublespeak should also be read in the long-displayed refusal of Beijing to discuss the New Delhi offer about legitimate security concerns and interests of both countries in the Indian Ocean.
While China claims sovereignty over the entire South China Sea islands and the maritime routes of the sea, it rejects claims of others like Vietnam despite the fact that it was Vietnam that had a majority of these islands under it historically. China has also warned the US recently over two B-15 military planes from the US that flew over what Beijing claims as its space; earlier, a US warship sailed close to the islands and China instantly termed this “provocative.” The countries of South-east Asia are gravely concerned over the Chinese military build up in the South China Sea with artificial islands on their reefs with airstrips that give military access to the areas south of them.
According to Vietnam Ambassador in New Delhi, Ton Sinh Thanh, the sea with over 2.7 million sq km in this historic area is of vital interest to the countries of the area. Large-scale land reclamation here by China has raised the concerns of the governments of the rim countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. While China reacts strongly against others having claims over what Beijing says is its territory, it is claiming Paracel Islands that are part of Vietnam’s territory. There is already a dispute between the Philippines and China over part of the Spratly Islands in the UN Arbitration Tribunal but unmindful of that, China is building naval facilities on an artificial island in the group that it has erected on one of the reefs there. Observers believe that China’s aggressive naval thrust into both the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean is part of its ‘One Belt, One Road’ policy under which it will dominate Eurasian trade and travel routes. New Delhi is not taking things lying down. There has been a new momentum to China’s domineering attitude in the Indian Ocean and building what amounts to bases from the west to the east of the sea ever since the NDA government came to power.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been keen on getting into a strong security relationship both with Japan and the US; his enthusiastic response to Japan’s request for being a part of the Malabar exercises in the Indian Ocean is one evidence of a dynamic change in the Indian policy in the region.
India’s ‘Look East’ policy has many dimensions and a naval entente to counter China’s aggressive activities is one of them. Mr. Modi has by now visited most of the Pacific and Indian Ocean rim countries in South-East and South Asia. In addition to welcoming Japan in this counter to China, Mr. Modi has built a new level of relationship with Australia, one of the parties concerned over China’s moves.
The positive outcome of this dynamism in the foreign policy of India after the new government took over in May 2014 is seen in Japan’s offer of technical support to Indian defence equipment manufacturing and also in the Japanese cooperation in civil nuclear sector.
China, of course, prides itself on being the second largest economy with its 10 trillion dollar GDP. Japan, the most industrialised country in Asia, has a 7 trillion dollar economy but with Indian economy bound to grow from the current two trillion dollar to 5 trillion dollar one by 2025, if not earlier, the India-Japan economic cooperation and strategic policy moves could become a major factor in containing an aggressive China in Asia.
It is more likely that the Chinese Ambassador’s warning in New Delhi about the India-Japan-US trilateral naval exercises is a hidden acknowledgement that under the new government, within 18 months India has provided a new hope to the South and South-East Asian countries as a major player for security and peace in the region.
The author is a Delhi-based commentator on political and social issues. E-mail: punjbalbir@gmail.com