Year That Augurs No Doom

For a nation of a 100-plus billion, holding opposing views on almost all issues and ready to take their fight to the streets, courts and legislative institutions, India’s security situation has been relatively quiet in 2015. Communal riots were few and far between and quickly stemmed. Despite attempts by fringe elements and misguided intellectuals to raise passions, social harmony remained largely unaffected. Except for Chhattisgarh where Naxalites carried out a few brutal encounters, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh contained their murderous assaults reasonably well. With the signing of the Naga accord, insurgent groups finally decided to give peace and development a chance. Anup Chetia’s repatriation marked the beginning of a final solution to the ULFA problem and Chhota Rajan’s homecoming opened up opportunities to bring his erstwhile aides to book.

There were also no terror attacks on a scale that struck Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bangkok, the US and France. ISIS did make modest inroads into a small section of youths but they were either nabbed or rehabilitated. The Muslim leadership and scholars helped the security agencies by disapproving of ISIS ideology. In J&K, the raising of Pakistani and ISIS flags had more to do with introducing drama than escalating separatism. In a reversal of our combat strategy, infiltrating and home-grown terrorists in Kashmir were engaged frontally and ceasefire violations by Pakistan were met with equal fury.

It will be remarkable if the comfort level of security is sustained for the next 12 months. Managing Pakistan will be a key factor because its imprints are visible in almost all terrorist incidents in India. No let-up will, thus, be desirable in dealing with infiltrating terrorists and ceasefire violations or in allowing our military preparedness to be constrained by PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Islamabad for SAARC summit in 2016. It will, however, be necessary to avoid issuing chest-thumping statements and arguing bitterly on issues such as trying Hafiz Saeed or repatriating Dawood to give both leaders a chance to engage in constructive dialogue. We must understand that only time can settle the Kashmir issue by converting the LoC into an international boundary. Until that happens, we just have to keep adding teeth to our deterrence and undertake covert operations for making it difficult for ISI and LeT to carry out hostile activities.

The same level of deterrence will also be needed along the northern borders. Though China is unlikely to trigger a clash, it will continue patrolling along the border and repeating its territorial claims on Arunachal Pradesh. The current impasse in friendly ties with Nepal should look up, given our historical engagement. The regime in Bangladesh is friendly but it has little control over the use of its soil by the ISI, Jamaat and now ISIS to groom and infiltrate terrorists and illegal immigrants into India. Our security forces and intelligence agencies will thus have to tighten border vigil. India is relatively free of ISIS operations, but signs of their attempt to radicalise Muslim youths are evident. It is expedient that we latch on to every trail that prospective recruits leave behind before they turn into organised terror groups.

The Naxalite situation is also expected to show improvement, following clear directions to security forces to force Naxals to return to the mainstream. With elections in West Bengal and Assam slated next year, some amount of communal tension is expected but if the recent past is any guide, they will not be allowed to turn into major conflagrations. There will be talk of building Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, followed by impassioned claims and counter-claims, but this is not going to express itself in any major clash. Knowing our propensity to be in the limelight for wrong reasons, the issue of who is morally, politically and socially correct will continue to be fiercely debated till it loses relevance.

Overall, the security scenario in the months ahead doesn’t augur doom. We seem to be on course to remain a fairly stable nation, despite a fractious society populated by individuals who are yet to evolve as responsible citizens shorn of hypocrisy.

amarbhushan@hotmail.com

Bhushan is a former special secretary, R&AW

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