To make sense of the drama unfolding in the ruling party in Tamil Nadu, try looking at it from a high science prism. You will find a nuclear chain reaction at play. A reaction that began with fission months after the death of party general secretary and chief minister J Jayalalithaa is now moving towards fusion.
At the heart of the AIADMK’s identity is the Jayalalithaa legacy and the party’s two leaves symbol. It’s the symbol that is driving the fusion reaction.
But first the fission. It started after the seemingly pliable chief minister O Panneerselvam revolted on February 7 against general secretary V K Sasikala days after he was forced to abdicate in her favour. Nuclear plants use fuel rods to control the chain reaction. Many saw in OPS’ sudden hardening of stance and subsequent statements an external hand that was guiding him all through.
Though Sasikala got disqualified after the Supreme Court sent her to jail in an assets case, she fought off the OPS challenge by making Gounder strongman Edappadi K Palaniswami the new chief minister and helped him win the trust vote. That was signature fission though OPS did not float a new outfit.
But the ruling group hadn’t factored in the damage Sasikala’s proxy, her nephew actually, could cause to the party. Pulled out of party expulsion (Jayalalithaa had thrown him out) and hurriedly made the deputy general secretary, T T V Dhinakaran had a sudden explosion of luck but couldn’t contain the excitement.
He made a series of errors but the biggest mistake perhaps was to become the party candidate for the RK Nagar Assembly by-elections. The seat was prestigious because it fell vacant after Jayalalithaa’s demise. By tossing his hat in the ring, Dhinakaran indicated his high ambition that was much beyond being an ordinary legislator. That raised the stakes for victory.
Three things happened in the space of a few weeks. One, the OPS group petitioned the Election Commission demanding the right to use the two leaves symbol in RK Nagar and the ruling faction filed its counter. The battle got bitter and the EC froze the symbol.
Two, Income Tax officials raided the premises of health minister C Vijaya Basker and claimed they had seized documents establishing the money trail to induce voters in RK Nagar.
The EC took cognizance of it and rescinded the by-elections. Fearing Vijaya Basker’s arrest, a section of the ministers and legislators pressed Dhinakaran to drop him from the ministry. They also warned Dhinakaran he was the real target of the inducement probe and advised him to stay off as well. Mutiny had begun. It was also the beginning of fusion, but Dhinakaran brushed it off. It later became known that the catalyst for the rebellion was Divaharan, another member of the Sasikala clan who narrowly missed being appointed as her deputy and was nursing a grudge against Dhinakaran ever since.
Three, the Delhi Police announced the arrest of Sukesh Chandrasekaran, a high-profile conman, with trying to bribe the Election Commission to get the two leaves symbol for Dhinakaran. The First Information Report documenting Sukesh’s arrest mentioned hawala transactions routed through Kerala to him and recorded Dhinakaran’s name as well. That was the last straw. Back-of-the envelope calculations suggested that the legislators loyal to Sasikala were hardly in double digits. To get back the symbol, the mutineers were ready to sideline the clan and forge unity with the OPS group that has 12 legislators.
Sasikala was why OPS revolted, they reasoned. They suddenly made common cause with the rebels, wanted to embrace them in a bear hug and activated back channels for unity talks. The seeming urgency in the ruling side gave the OPS group clout way beyond the numbers it held. To test the earnestness of the mutineers, the wary rebels demanded total purge of the Sasikala family from the party and recommending a CBI probe into Jayalalithaa’s death. Purge was defined as forcing Sasikala and Dhinakaran to resign, withdrawing affidavits before the EC saying Sasikala was the general secretary or expelling them from the party.
Both sides have formed panels for talks. But fusion talks won’t be easy. At stake are the powerful posts of the general secretary and the head of the government. But the ultimate aim is to get back the two leaves symbol. The OPS group argues it has the best claim to the symbol having submitted over 1 lakh affidavits from supporters to the EC as against just over 1,400 from the ruling side.
The talks cannot be dragged on forever, as elections to local bodies have to be completed by July-end, hence the urgency to get the symbol. And the application forms of candidates need to be signed by the general secretary, which is why merger talks to identify the new party head have acquired such great importance. Fusion releases a lot more energy than fission, so merger would have bigger ramifications that the OPS revolt. Indeed the ejection of the Mannargudi clan, if it happens, could well be the Big Bang moment in Tamil Nadu politics.
Suresh Sundaram
Deputy Resident Editor, Tamil Nadu
ssuresh@newindianexpress.com