West Indies scripted a miracle in England and Bangladesh put it across Australia for the first time in Dhaka. Is Test cricket suddenly on an overdrive to produce upsets? The ICC rankings would suggest so: England and Australia are third and fourth in the table, and West Indies and Bangladesh are eighth and ninth.
Treat the Caribbean heist at Headingley as a surprise alright, but what Bangladesh achieved on Wednesday should not really be seen as one. It was indeed a stunning result considering that it had never happened before, but given the way the Bangladesh and Australian teams were performing in South Asian conditions of late, the victory at Dhaka was a natural outcome of what had been brewing. That it did not happen sooner was only because Australia had not toured Bangladesh since 2006. And even on that trip, it essayed a narrow escape in the first Test.
While Australia have fallen off their peak during this hiatus, Bangladesh have grown in ability and confidence. They have also embraced the tested and trusted formula of subcontinental teams when it comes to hosting Australia, England and South Africa: prepare pitches that assist spin, pack the XI with spinners and don't give up if you get out for a low or modest total because it will be tougher for the tourists. Barring Pakistan, who have relied on fast bowlers too for success at home, Asian teams have historically banked on this principle.
Bangladesh deserve credit for realising the importance of this ploy despite having an impressive pool of fast bowlers, who were instrumental in their ODI triumphs at home against India, Pakistan and South Africa in the last two years. It takes tactical maturity to discard a proven strategy when a different format demands something else. Under Sri Lankan coach Chandika Hathurusinghe, Bangladesh have consistently picked pace-heavy attacks for the ODIs and switched to the other extreme in the Test matches. Against Australia, spinners bowled 61 of the 75 overs in the first innings and 70 of the 71 in the second.
This emphasis on spin didn't pay off against India or Pakistan when Bangladesh beat them the sub-continental giants in ODIs but worked against England last year. It yielded a series-levelling win, which gave them belief that it could be tried against Australia. Their struggle in India and Sri Lanka inspired Bangladesh and by the time the Test match arrived, they knew that this opposition would crack if put under sustained pressure against spin.
Questions may still be raised against the spin theory. There may be arguments that 'real' cricket shouldn't assist one type of bowling so overwhelmingly. With due respect to this school of thought, it has to be said that Test cricket has long stopped being a contest under ideal conditions, with something for batsmen, fast bowlers and spinners alike. Turning pitches have been a challenge for visiting teams in India and Sri Lanka, who made optimum use of them to settle scores after getting thrashed in foreign shores. Bangladesh have only replicated this model, with the skill and temperament to execute it.
In what was described as a defeat sans disgrace in India earlier this year, it was seen that Australia are heavily dependent on Steve Smith in these conditions. The rest of the squad isn't adept at tackling the turning ball and this ineptitude becomes more glaring as one takes a look at the batting order. David Warner didn't have a century in Asia until the second innings of this Test, Matt Renshaw is still a beginner, while the rest are low either on experience or expertise when it comes to mastering spin.
Bangladesh noticed this and planned accordingly. Luck favoured them at the toss and they showed the tenacity to graft, slog and scamper for runs. Once they had those on the board and took the lead in the first innings, it became predictable. What unfolded thereafter was the script seen earlier in Sri Lanka and India. Hail Bangladesh for putting it together. And don't call it a surprise.