And so it begins. Or at least it will on Friday when Donald Trump stands on the steps of the US Capitol building, places his hand on The Bible and swears to protect and preserve the American constitution. The US presidential inauguration is a celebration of American democracy and the peaceful transition from one administration to the next.
There are parades, marching bands, waving flags, an inaugural ball and a bevy of Hollywood stars. Not this time. Oh yes, all the above will occur as usual. But in addition a million-plus protesters are expected to descend on Washington DC to disown the elected President of the United States. “Not our President,” they will shout. And all indications are that the forthcoming inaugural weekend is a mere curtain-raiser for the global thrills and spills to come. If you enjoy life on the edge, than you are living on the right planet at the right time. Let’s look first at the well head—America and President Trump. Trump enters the White House with an approval rating of 37 per cent.
The man he is replacing has an approval rating of 57 per cent. No American president in modern history has assumed office under a virulent barrage of vitriol such as the one Trump is currently enduring. There is a veritable forest of question marks hanging over his character, abilities, even his right to govern. Is he a sexual predator? Did he cavort with Russian prostitutes in a Moscow hotel room? Why won’t he release his tax returns? What is the role of his son-in-law? Has he properly divested himself of his business interests? Is he a threat to freedom of the press? Did his campaign staff work with Russians? Is he being blackmailed by Putin? Is he Putin’s poodle? What are the threats to NATO? Can American intelligence agencies work with Trump after his attacks, and vice versa? Will Trump reverse Obama’s Cuba policy? What will happen to America’s immigrant community, Taiwan, China, Jerusalem, North Korea, NATO, Ukraine, the Baltic States, NAFTA, Medicare, Obamacare and free trade? And finally, should a person who lost the popular vote by 2.5 million take the oath of office? The answer to the last question is yes.
That is how American electoral law works and the law must be respected. As for all the others? Well, a lot of journalists will have a lot of fun seeking answers to those questions. And their search will seriously hinder Trump’s ability to govern the US and provide the global security upon which the rest of the world has come to rely. The repercussions of Trump’s victory are already evident beyond American shores. For a start, mass anti- Trump protests next weekend will not be confined to the US. As this article is being written, demonstrations are scheduled in 36 cities on five continents.
The demonstrators could not vote for the most powerful person in the world. So they are taking to the streets to make their views known. It is often said: When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. The demonstrators are concerned that America is about to catch a bad cold. Trump’s policies on abortion, women’s rights, immigration and racism will be at the forefront on the minds of many demonstrators. Then there are the security concerns.
Earlier this week, a Chinese aircraft carrier led a flotilla through the Taiwan Strait. This deliberately provocative act caused the Taiwanese government to scramble a squadron of fighter aircraft. Thanks to Trump, the One China policy is back on the table, re-introducing another flashpoint at a time when the threat of American tariffs and the issue of the South China Sea are creating more than enough headaches. This Sunday there is a longplanned major Middle East conference in Paris. Seventy nations will be represented. US Secretary of State John Kerry will be there.
Conspicuous by his absence will be Benjamin Netanyahu. Why should the Israeli premier make concessions for peace when Trump plans to move the US embassy to Jerusalem and is sending an envoy to Israel who unreservedly supports West Bank settlements? There is another inauguration next weekend. Major General Rumen Radev will be sworn in as president of Bulgaria on Sunday. He was elected on a pro-Russian platform. So was Igor Dodon, president of neighbouring Moldova. Both these victors are examples of the electorate’s finely tuned instincts for political survival. Small countries need big countries as friends. Europe and America are waning. Russia is waxing—big time.
And Russia is flexing its muscles again in Eastern Europe. Last year it beefed up its tactical nuclear arsenal in its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad. In response, Obama this week dispatched 3,000 US troops and 800 tanks to Poland. The Kremlin denounced the move as a “threat to Russian security”. Is Putin serving notice of fresh East European moves in response to a new and already weakened US president? Finally, among the honoured guests at the US inauguration will be Nigel Farage, former leader of the far-right anti-EU, anti-immigration UK Independence Party—the man Trump would love to see appointed British envoy to the US. Last week, Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Front Party was in New York.
The day after the inauguration, the leaders of Europe’s far-right anti-immigration parties will hold their first-ever meeting. For years, these parties were dismissed as inconsequential. The election of Trump has enabled, emboldened and encouraged them. There is a bright spark on the horizon. Also, on the day after the inauguration, it is World Hug Day. The world needs a hug.
Tom Arms
Broadcaster, columnist and editor of the foreign affairs newsletter LookAheadnews.com
Email: tom.arms@lookaheadtv.com