Life is full of possibilities. It’s a saying made famous by Game of Thrones character Tyrion Lannister, a dwarf despised by most other characters in the TV series and loved by viewers. As a game of thrones is being played out in Karnataka with Assembly elections around the corner, nobody will understand the saying better than H D Kumaraswamy, the former chief minister in whose hands lies the fate of his party JD(S).
The coming elections have the potential to make a king or kingmaker of him, or can leave him a political pauper. There will be possibilities later on, too, only if Kumaraswamy, 57, can keep the party alive.
As a young man, Kumaraswamy was more interested in movies than in politics. He started out as a film producer-distributor, but turned out to be a better politician than many and a formidable foe for rivals.
It was his brother H D Revanna who was seen as their father Deve Gowda’s political heir. Kumaraswamy won his first election in 1996 and became an MP. But he lost the next two. So, when he became chief minister in 2006, by pulling down the Congress-JD(S) coalition government that his father helped put together and joining hands with BJP, he was only a first-time MLA. On the other hand, Revanna was already twice an MLA and minister.
Kumaraswamy was nowhere in the scheme of things, or that was how it appeared, when Gowda went for a tie-up with Congress after the 2004 assembly elections threw up a hung verdict. Gowda chose his long-time associate Siddaramaiah to be deputy chief minister in the coalition government. When Siddaramaiah fell out with Gowda and was expelled in 2005, the post went to M P Prakash. But, Kumaraswamy had started making his presence felt by then. Siddaramaiah’s fall coincided with Kumaraswamy’s rise in the party, and Gowda made amply clear who he preferred — son or friend.
Siddaramaiah’s exit and his own ascension to the chief minister’s post in 2006 helped Kumaraswamy cement his position in the party, next to Gowda but ahead of Revanna, though there was a brief period of rift between him and his father.
ccIn fact, it was said the tension was only for public consumption, and Gowda all along knew what his younger son was up to. As per the deal, JD(S) and BJP were to play a 20-20 match in which both would equally share the remaining 40 months of the assembly’s term. Kumaraswamy completed his 20-month tenure as chief minister and then refused to resign. Though he later relented and Yeddyurappa became CM after a brief period of central rule, the government lasted just a week.
When Yeddyurappa resigned after failing to deal with the demands of JD(S) and President’s Rule was imposed again, Kumaraswamy’s brief but eventful shot at power came to an end and the long wait began. BJP won the 2008 elections, and Congress the next. Ten years — that’s how long Kumaraswamy’s wait has lasted. To give him credit, he has kept the politician in him busy and the party relevant during the period — taking on rivals without a pause and often making chief miniser Siddaramaiah’s life difficult.
But that may not be enough, given that JD(S) has failed to grow beyond its traditional strongholds—regions once part of the state of Mysore. Though Kumaraswamy has tried to spread his influence in north Karnataka, it’s yet to be seen how successful he has been.
The current family-run regional outfit that it has been reduced to, from being an ideology-driven national party, JD(S) has odds stacked against it. Seven of its MLAs are on the verge of joining Congress. There have been many other desertions as well.
Besides health concerns — he recently underwent a valve replacement surgery — and shrinking sphere of influence, Kumaraswamy is also fighting battles within the family. Revanna’s son Prajwal wants to contest the assembly election, and his family has been saying that again and again despite Kumaraswamy maintaining that only two from the family will contest — himself and Revanna. Feeling sidelined, the Revanna family now wants a share of Gowda’s legacy. Divisions in the family could make Kumaraswamy’s task that much harder.
For Kumaraswamy and JD(S), the coming elections are more about survival than winning. Under the circumstances, his best bet is a hung verdict in which JD(S) either retains its present strength (the party won 40 of 224 seats in 2013) or improves a little. In such a scenario, Kumaraswamy can hope to play the kingmaker, a role he will relish. He can even be the king, depending on the outcome. A fractured verdict will serve his cause even if the tally goes down.
But, should there be a clear winner among Congress and BJP, his wait will continue, and that could test the party’s ability to survive, and his own mettle as a politician. It’s said Gowda is at his best when presented with a crisis. Same thing can be said of Kumaraswamy, too. It’s a game of thrones he must play, and survive.
Kiran Prakash
Resident Editor, Karnataka
Email: kiranprakash@newindianexpress.com