2019 Lok Sabha elections: Not Just Two To Tango

No sign from the ground till now allows us to imagine a single party making it on its own.
2019 Lok Sabha polls (Illustration | Amit Bandre)
2019 Lok Sabha polls (Illustration | Amit Bandre)

It would be wise to go beyond our usual bipolar vision and recognise the real content of the 2019 elections: alliances will be the crux, the crucial swing factor, substantively defining the continuing federal trend of our polity. No sign from the ground till now allows us to imagine a single party making it on its own. In 2014 too, the election was very much fought on the strength of alliances, but with a difference. Modi, showcased as ‘the’ answer to everything, was the prime factor across India.

The BJP managed to galvanise the masses and classes around him. In Mathura, UP, during a campaign visit, a rather quizzically surprised Hema Malini saw everyone in the villages she went to, from children to the old, chanting one name. “I’ve been given many names and attributes, but never in my life had I seen people looking at Hema Malini and saying ‘Modi Modi’! I feel my name has been changed!” she had recounted to this writer, not entirely thrilled.

The results, particularly in UP, matched that build-up. In 2019, whatever slogan the BJP comes up with to cash the Modi cheque again, the vote will be on the PM + government + performance. The latter includes Modi, his governance style, all of NDA-II and the scorecard of BJP MPs. The surprise factor is what is missing.

The last four years saw the emergence of Amit Shah as a key strategist—in mainstream discourse, the BJP is hyphenated into a Modi-Shah duocracy. Now, a third angle has been added in the form of Yogi Adityanath. The BJP, in its own wisdom, has sought to project the saffron-clad UP CM as a mascot of sorts, even beyond the boundaries of UP.  Analysis of recent Assembly poll results, fiercely contested by the BJP, shows the cons may be more than the pros. What’s it like in UP? When the BJP posted a spectacular repeat performance in the UP Assembly polls, on the back of demonetisation, the all-round expectation was of a kind of double turbo engine.

Things did not turn out on expected lines (a senior BJP MP claims “double engine has become double incumbency”). Moreover, it solidified a formidable caste alliance of SP-BSP-RLD against it. Even if the Phulpur-Gorakhpur bypoll results were a fluke, a close look at 2014 and later Assembly results show the SP-BSP’s aggregated votes are more than the BJP’s in three out of four constituencies.

A potentially crucial twist: as of now, the Congress seems unlikely to be part of the UP alliance. Some of its leaders claim it’s by strategic choice, some quietly blame the aspirations of Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav. Neither wants to facilitate a Congress resurgence, though Akhilesh may prefer to tie the Congress to a limited number of seats, between five and 10, to avoid any splintering of Muslim votes. Mayawati is not ready to give the GoP more than Amethi and Rae Bareli, if at all.

For the BSP, it seems, the Congress fighting on its own, cutting into the BJP’s dominant caste votes, is seen as a better option. Anxieties in that segment, set off by Yogi’s ‘Thakur raj’, are quite high, by many accounts. Thus, even a small ally like the Apna Dal is playing hard ball. (It’s therefore rather curious that Shah gave a former bete noire, Gordhan Zadafia, charge of UP.) As things stand, the state is unlikely to repeat 2014. 

The changing equations were best exemplified in Bihar, where the BJP won 22 in 2014 but has now agreed to contest 17 to accommodate Ram Vilas Paswan and CM Nitish Kumar, despite the anti-incumbency against his moth-eaten JD(U). By all accounts, the BJP vote in Bihar seems intact, whereas Nitish’s EBC/Mahadalit plank is challenged by the exit of Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Manjhi. Things seem equally poised. Can Nitish deliver a high strike rate for his 17 seats? Can sympathy for the incarcerated Lalu Prasad Yadav boost the RJD beyond its recent highs? It’s all up in the air.

Elsewhere in the Hindi heartland, even if the Congress/UPA is unable to carry over its recent momentum, it’s unlikely to be a walkover for the BJP. In Tamil Nadu, the alliance-making is done and dusted: the DMK under Stalin is firmly with the Congress/UPA. In Karnataka, a Congress-JD(S) tie-up is a fait accompli, as is the pact with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh.

Another twist: the third factor, in the form of K Chandrashekar Rao. KCR’s alliance-making efforts, if it goes beyond enthusiastic backing from Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik to a nod from Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh-Mayawati, it’s certainly trouble for the Congress. In the first round, KCR has bested the new UPA, convened by Chandrababu Naidu, but the jury is still out.

For KCR and Naveen, the Congress is the main Opposition, hence any proximity to the UPA is a near-impossibility. Little wonder the PM was kinder to the BJD in his recent Odisha rally, despite Shah’s 120+ slogan to wrest the state from Naveenbabu’s iron grip. So a contrary alliance is what the Congress could be looking at in Odisha and Telangana. And in Bengal, like UP, no alliance—that may help it retain its little foothold. Mamata is anyway unlikely to share a single seat with anyone. For the BJP, suffering alliance blues in Maharashtra, the best bet seems to be the far east. What if it emerges the single-largest party short of majority? Well, Nitish, it seems, maintains a hotline across party lines!

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