Not since the early years of Independence has our country been in such a fractured and dissonant state as it is today. Back then it was states like Kashmir, Hyderabad and Nagaland resisting being a part of India. Today the issue is one of opposition-ruled states rejecting the authority of the Centre and its agencies, and attempting to build legislative and policy walls to keep them away from its shores. The concept of federalism is being seriously threatened by these developments, and though some pushback (by the states) has always existed it has now been taken to a new level by the BJP’s contempt for all other political parties, and its personal style of adversarial politics and governance. This is in sharp contrast to its 2014 promise of promoting federalism, just one in a long string of promises that have never seen the light of day.
This pushback by the states comes in many forms, the latest of course being the actions of Mamata Banerjee against the CBI on February 3. It was bound to happen sooner or later, given the manner in which the CBI was being used against opposition leaders exclusively. The warning signs—three states, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal withdrawing permission for the CBI to operate there—were there but Delhi either failed to read them or ignored them, and now has been left licking its wounds. The constitutionality or correctness of Mamata’s action, as also her disallowing political leaders landing rights in her state, is certainly open to question. But the damage to our federal structure has been done—it is now a foregone conclusion that more states are likely to follow the trail hacked out by the Bengal CM.
The Centre’s disdain for any consultation with states before ramming through its programmes is also driving a wedge between it and the states. Never before have so many states opposed central schemes: The Ayushman Bharat health programme has already been rejected by West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Delhi who feel their own schemes are more beneficial. The recently announced farmer income guarantee scheme is likely to face a similar fate. This will in turn create more friction and distrust between New Delhi and the state capitals.
An even more disturbing trend is the widening gulf between the southern states and the northern ones, particularly the “Hindi heartland” states. This is the result of inept politics, economics and demographics. The first is exhibited frequently in the Centre’s attempts to foist Hindi on the southern states every once in a while, such as by naming metro stations and milestones on national highways in Hindi. The economic disparity between them was exacerbated by the revised TOR of the 15th Finance Commission that adopts the 2011 Census as a basis for devolution of funds to states instead of the 1971 figures, which had been the norm so far. This is significant because the four southern states have had a much lower population growth than the northern ones since 1971. This will translate into reduced allocations for the southern states, further exacerbating the resentment of the South against the North.
The demographic imbalance has sown the seeds for another, more dangerous challenge in the coming years. As the populations in the southern states decline and become older in relation to the rest of India, this will create a vacuum in labour supply. Excess labour from a poorer North will inevitably migrate to the South, creating social tensions. We have already seen the first signs of this in the recent violence against people from Bihar in Gujarat over the rape of a young girl.
These perceptions will drive states to devise legal and illegal means to curb the movement of outsiders to their states, thus eroding one of the fundamental premises of our Constitution. This has already started. Himachal Pradesh and J&K already have laws that prohibit outsiders from buying land there. Just last year the Delhi government ordered that 80 per cent of the beds in a government hospital there would be reserved for people from Delhi (it was struck down by the Delhi HC). It has been trying to impose similar quotas in government colleges. Madhya Pradesh has just issued an order mandating that industries which benefit from government programmes will have to employ 70 per cent locals. As unemployment and poverty defy solutions, more states will erect barriers to entry of people from other states. Hypernationalism is forcing hundreds of Kashmiris back to their own state from other states after the Pulwama attack.
The Centre’s obsession with security has already made migration from one state to another difficult for the common man. Various ID requirements such as Aadhaar, ration cards etc., are now mandatory in all walks of life, from opening a bank account to receiving the monthly PDS dole or even to vote (the AAP alleged that in Delhi, the names of 20 lakh voters from UP and Bihar have been deleted). A migrant from a village will find it difficult to negotiate these barriers, and will therefore in all likelihood be denied all these benefits or rights.
These are all straws in the wind that do not portend well for the idea of one India. If the states and the Centre are in a constant state of antagonism and do not acknowledge each others’ writ or powers; if people are not able to move freely, study or work where they wish to, vote based on their current place of residence; if they are subjected to violence or discrimination because they are “outsiders”, then we are not one country but a federation of silos.
Avay Shukla
served in the IAS for 35 years and retired as Additional Chief Secretary of Himachal Pradesh
Email: avayshukla@gmail.com