This is the season of endgames. Fans of the Avengers movie franchise now know who among the superheroes survived the last battle, and followers of TV series Game of Thrones will soon know who gets to sit on the fabled Iron Throne. In Kerala, election results on May 23 will reveal whether the communist parties can retain their enduring but slippery hold over the state or is it the beginning of the end in their last bastion as well. Unlike the fantastical battles in imaginary worlds, the fight is very real for the Left—one that will decide their fate in Indian politics.
It’s probably preposterous to talk about the end of a political front that is currently ruling a state. And, the CPM-led LDF in Kerala has a better track record governing the state than its rival, the Congress-led UDF. The Pinarayi Vijayan government has done a reasonably good job, and except for the Sabarimala issue, it did not bungle much—unlike the previous UDF regime. That should have been enough to ensure the Left’s survival and make its leaders feel secure about their future. Apparently not.
In the days preceding polling on April 23 and even after, CPM leaders, Chief Minister Vijayan and state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan included, kept insisting on one thing—that the fight in Kerala is between the LDF and the UDF, and the BJP-led NDA will finish third in all seats. Even UDF leaders made this point, but not quite as forcefully. By saying that repeatedly, the CPM leaders were, on the one hand, acknowledging the BJP’s remarkable growth in Kerala, and on the other, revealing their fear of finishing third in some seats. In 2014, the LDF came third in one seat, Thiruvananthapuram, and the number could go up this time.
The Left’s slide in Kerala is as real and significant as the BJP’s rise. Even when the LDF returned to power in the state in 2016, winning 91 of 140 Assembly seats, its vote share declined compared to the 2011 elections when it lost out to the UDF. It’s the number of votes that the BJP took away from the Congress that made the difference in 2016. The BJP increased its vote share from about 6% in 2011 to a little more than 10% in 2014 (parliamentary election) and to nearly 15% in 2016. Any further rise of the BJP will have to be at the cost of the LDF, as the UDF doesn’t have much to spare for the saffron brigade as it now banks mostly on minority votes (about 45% overall) for its survival.
Aided by the Sabarimala controversy, the BJP will certainly increase its vote share. Winning is another matter altogether. This possible erosion of Hindu votes is what is worrying the CPM, and the damage to its support base, if any, could be permanent. With the UDF seen to be clearly ahead of its rivals, the election this time in Kerala is not about who finishes first, but who comes second. Ceding the second spot to the BJP in seats where it can’t win could mean the Left’s fight for survival gets tougher.
Kerala’s audacious romance with communism has lasted long, and may have run its course. When communist bastions elsewhere crumbled, people in Kerala stayed loyal to their comrade-leaders. Communism is an idea whose time is past, and if the communists have survived in Kerala, it’s probably because of reasons other than ideology. Even as the CPM, the CPI and others gradually moved away from the core principles of communism, selectively adopting rules of capitalism instead, they still remained relevant as a secular alternative to religion-driven parties. It’s the secular-minded population that kept the Left going in Kerala. But the scene is changing, and religious affiliations are beginning to matter more than political beliefs. The UDF has its minority vote bank and the BJP can bank on the Hindu votes. Where’s the Left going to get its votes from unless it joins the communal game?
The Left’s disintegration in West Bengal meant the front won only 12 seats in 2014—and eight of them came from Kerala. The last battle in the Left’s endgame maybe some time away, but there’s certainty about its fate in Indian politics, and Kerala can’t be an exception.
Kiran Prakash
Resident Editor, Kerala
kiranprakash@newindianexpress.com