Jammu & Kashmir has been in the news and will remain so for many more months after the Union government’s big move of stripping the state of special provisions, converting it into a Union Territory and keeping the state leaders under house arrest/detention on grounds of law and order. Most would agree it is not in the interests of any side, particularly the state’s citizens, to have this situation continue for too long. So, what exactly is the Centre’s strategy on the way forward on Kashmir?
According to sources privy to the thought process, the Centre may not be keen to have J&K as a UT for too long. Some say J&K could get back the status of a state as early as October-November while Ladakh will continue as UT perhaps forever. While it is true that Delhi always had a remote control over the state irrespective of who was in power there and at the national level, it is also logical that the NDA government does not want to bear the cross for happenings in the Valley for too long. Having achieved its objective of “integrating” the state, the thinking in the NDA seems to be that it should delink itself from directly running J&K as quickly as possible.
J&K getting an elected government is, however, likely to take much longer. With the delimitation process expected to kick in anytime, the earliest window for the polls is only around the summer of 2020. That will also give enough time for the BJP to execute its plan to “clean up the state of corruption in governance”, gain the trust of tribals by way of political and other reservations, come up with some big-ticket investments by corporates—all of which it hopes will help form the first non-Muslim-led government in J&K. Amidst all this, one can only hope that the ordinary Kashmiris will be made to feel that this country genuinely cares for them. The focus will have to be on improving access to healthcare and education and due care should be taken to prevent industrialists from exploiting the beauty of Nature and turning it into an ecological disaster. Else, the damage could be more than what terrorists inflicted on the state in the years that went by.
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That the Supreme Court and the Centre have not exactly been on the same page with regard to appointments to the top court as well as high courts is no longer a secret. It is now almost 10 months since seven members of the Bar were recommended for appointment as judges for HCs of Andhra Pradesh (4) and Telangana (3), but a formal notification is yet to be made. Of course, substantial delay happened at the SC level itself with the Collegium sitting over the file for many months for unknown reasons. Finally, about a month ago, the apex court cleared the names and sent them to the government. Then, came a new twist.
It was the Telugu Desam Party headed by N Chandrababu Naidu that was in power when the names in Andhra Pradesh were first proposed. By the time the SC considered the matter, there has been a change of regime with Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy getting elected as the chief minister. The buzz in legal circles is that a YSR Congress delegation met the Union law minister a few weeks ago and put up a strong objection to two of the four proposed for Andhra HC. Whether the file has been put on hold for this reason or something else, the speculation is that it hasn’t reached the PMO yet. If and when it does, the PMO may either clear the names and send them for Presidential assent or refer them back to the Collegium for reconsideration. If the latter happens, it is more than likely that the SC could reiterate its recommendation as it did in some instances in the recent months.
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The TRS government in Telangana seems to be back in full action, finally. The second term of KCR began in December last year after he advanced the Assembly polls but the government remained mostly in limbo for a variety of reasons. The constitution of his Cabinet itself happened almost a month after the results. Then came the Lok Sabha polls in which the TRS suffered unexpected losses, followed by elections to local body institutions.
It now appears more or less certain that KCR’s ministry will be expanded towards this month-end or early September. His son, K T Rama Rao, who was a minister in the first term but was made working president after the party returned to power, is expected to be back in the Cabinet. Ditto, his nephew T Harish Rao, who was handling irrigation earlier and became the biggest exclusion when KCR formed the ministry in January this year. Notwithstanding speculation of all kinds in the media, Harish remained silent even after he was ignored. But there appears to be a change in KCR’s thinking. Whether as a reward for being silent despite what many saw as an insult or to ward off the impending threat from the BJP, which is going all out to emerge as a big player (the party won 4 LS seats), the TRS founder is expected to bless the nephew this time around.
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Watch out for long-time loyalists of the RSS and BJP to be rewarded with gubernatorial positions soon. The term of Governors of as many as four states is ending soon—Mridula Sinha (Goa), Vajubhai Vala (Karnataka), Ch Vidyasagar Rao (Maharashtra) and Kalyan Singh (Rajasthan)—not counting E S L Narasimhan (until recently for both AP and Telangana and now just TS), who is already on an unspecified extension.
Many are reportedly trying their luck and others are making their own guesses but the cold fact is that none other than the big two—Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah— know who will be on the list, as is the case with most decisions of this government.
G S Vasu
Editor, The New Indian Express
Email: vasu@newindianexpress.com