Bluff is the backbone of populist politics. Calling the bluff is its spine. Rahul Gandhi claims he has got the goods on Narendra Modi. He even promised an earthquake, but so far it has registered only Zero on the Richter scale. It is puzzling why the Congress Vice President is not backing up his accusations with proof if he is really in possession of them. Maybe he has none. With the Uttar Pradesh poll campaign stoking up the Fahrenheit, Rahul perhaps thinks his tall talk will help his party, which seeks 100 seats in an alliance with the Samajwadi Party.
Modi has called his bluff by just ignoring Gandhi’s hyperbole.
History has showed that allegations of corruption, if politically managed, can wreak havoc on a mass leader. Modi has no intention of falling into such a trap. Rahul’s father Rajiv Gandhi became prime minister with the largest ever majority around the same age as his son is today. He had charisma, but lost it because he didn’t call the Opposition’s bluff. He just didn’t know how to. Hence, he lost the elections, too.
Narendra Modi is an astute politician, who has defeated his enemies in backroom battlefields as well as in electoral combat across hinterland India. In spite of popular distress over demonetisation, the difference between Rajiv and Modi is the strength of conviction. Rajiv never seemed fully convinced about his own leadership; the massive mandate was a vote for his mother’s martyrdom rather than his skills as a leader. The incorruptible Modi, on the other hand, is a man of destiny, willing to take huge risks in the belief that he can cleanse corruption in public life, unmindful of consequences.
Rahul knows how important UP is to all parties. But training guns on a powerful opponent sans gunpower will backfire. Both Robert Vadra’s land deals and the National Herald case may prove costly for the Gandhis.
The trick of winning mass acceptability is to adapt your political strategy to your personality. Modi’s aggressive and authoritative energy has won him the reputation of a prime minister who doesn’t pull his punches.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s gentle, yet steely personality precluded histrionics; he was effective as a paterfamilial disciplinarian—iron-handed but with a velvet glove, bringing unruly family members of a coalition into line. Rahul needs a political style that suits his disposition. Aggression and allegations are not his strong points—his phonetic manner and irregular forays into political actions reveal a pleasant young man pushed into a career not of his choosing. He sounds extremely unconvincing when he tries to street fight his formidable opponent.
Hence, Rahul’s charges of corruption against Prime Minister Modi makes his position vulnerable. It’s time Mummy insisted he develops a team, which has both youth and experience; delegate responsibility and evolve a cadre-friendly style if he wants to get anything done. Unlike his father and grandmother, he lacks personal charisma.
Sonia converted her poor mass connect into a Sphinx-like advantage which leaves everyone guessing. Rahul needs substance, and not raspberry rhetoric to win at least 10 out of the 100 seats he wants in UP. Or else, the allegations against him from both within and outside the Congress of being a whimsical and inconsistent leader will be established beyond bluff.
Ravi Shankar
ravi@newindianexpress.com