Lessons from Jat and Maratha Heartland

This lesson is particularly important to those who believe in sulking as a political philosophy and invest in hope as a viable strategy.
Sharad Pawar addressed a public rally in Satara amidst heavy rains (Photo | NCP Twitter)
Sharad Pawar addressed a public rally in Satara amidst heavy rains (Photo | NCP Twitter)

The image of Sharad Pawar, 79-years-old and a cancer survivor, campaigning in torrential rains in Satara, refusing the cover of an umbrella, will stay as one of the most abiding images of the recent polls. Written off by pundits, targeted by the ruling regime, Pawar led the NCP in a bruising battle to deliver 54 seats in Maharashtra. It is also an enduring lesson for politicos and parties across the country.

The verdict of voters from the heartland of Marathas and Jats has many lessons for parties and politicians.

Lesson No 1: Modern-day politics yields no place for electoral tourism. Voters will thrash candidates and trash parties who do not show up and respect and reward those who do show up. This lesson is particularly important to those who believe in sulking as a political philosophy and invest in hope as a viable strategy.

Lesson No 2: Voters long on Modi and short on BJP. Over 60 per cent of those who voted for the BJP named Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the work of the Central Government as reason for their choice as per the survey of India Today-Axis-MyIndia post-poll survey. But sentiment and trust alone is not enough. Voters, to borrow from stock market phraseology, may be long on Modi but will not hesitate to go short on BJP. Remember these states voted overwhelmingly for the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls.

Lesson No 3: It’s the economy stupid.

The political economy is not yet at the tipping point but the scent of anger over agrarian distress and job losses is showing up in the results whether in Vidarbha, Western Maharashtra or rural Haryana. In Haryana farmers, farm labour, unemployed and those between 18 and 35 chose the Congress over the BJP (AxisMyIndia Survey). What is more significant is that failure to address issues led to an alignment of grievance and caste — the farmers , farm labourers, young unemployed voted for the caste warriors.
Lesson No 4: Every team needs a captain. Empowerment of local leadership delivers — the need to choose a captain early is best represented by the results in Punjab, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

The Congress dilly-dallied on the leadership question for months, some say over a year. Eventually less than 40 days before the polls, it anointed Kumari Selja and Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The duo managed to pack a punch in a short time. While the BJP managed to hang on, it has had to kow-tow to the demands of the young Dushyant Chautala. In Maharashtra, confusion was confounded between two Chavans. If the party did surface it was thanks to Pawar who used his network to drag a reluctant ally along and campaigned for the Congress cousins.

Lesson No 5: Quota is good but not enough. Devendra Fadnavis did well to walk across the aisle to make the quota for Marathas happen but it was not enough. While the BJP did well across social groups the improved showing of the NCP and Congress in Western Maharashtra, in North Maharashtra, in Marathawada and even Vidarbha, is a signal worth reading.

Lesson No 6: Organisation matters. Mumbai, the economic hub of India, accounts for 36 seats in the house of 288 in Maharashtra. In 18 months, the Congress has seen three chiefs for Mumbai. The city has a vote share and the party does have a cadre in the city but there was no leader. The mess and mayhem has taken its toll on its showing. The Congress party in Mumbai was fighting but not in the elections and could not leverage public anger over the economy and job losses.

Lesson No 7: Arrogance will be punished. The defeat of Pankaja Munde in Maharashtra and Capt Abhimanyu represent a trend. In Haryana, barring CM M L Khattar and Anil Vij, all eight other ministers were trounced. In Maharashtra, eight ministers from the Fadnavis cabinet were voted out. The public anger is about non-performance and the lack of sensitivity of ministers on issues — whether floods, drought or distress.

Lesson No 8: Wooing turncoats can be treacherous. The BJP for some years has deployed an EXIM policy in politics — export unwanted and import from other parties. This has had consequences for the party. To start with, the majority of turncoats who left Congress and the NCP, for reasons ranging from survival to sustenance, were defeated. Secondly, the installation of defectors robbed loyal cadre of legitimate opportunity resulting in over two dozen turning rebels.

Lesson No 9: The NOTA factor. None of the above, the choice to not vote for any candidate, is an emerging option. The NOTA factor is visible where politicos do not show up during a crisis or a catastrophe. It is estimated that over 7.4 lakh voters, up from over 4.2 lakh in 2014, hit the NOTA button to express their dissent on choice of candidates. Contrary to popular perception rural voters have weaponised the NOTA option far better than urban voters — as witnessed in Latur-Rural and Palus-Kadegaoan where NOTA stood second.

Lesson No 10: What is the most surprising factoid of the poll results? The fact that the Congress did as well as it did given the perceptions about the party and its leadership. What is even more surprising is that Congressmen have not, as yet, credited the high command and a leadership which didn’t know whether it was coming or going. That the party showed up and fought to survive another election seems to suggest there is life beyond the high command! 

shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com

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