The BJP has sounded the poll bugle in Odisha. Determined to expand beyond its strongholds in northern and western India, the party made a strident pitch for power in Odisha and other eastern states at the national executive meet in Bhubaneswar. Riding on PM Narendra Modi’s magic and the outcome of the recent panchayat polls in Odisha, it has reasons to feel confident about ending the 17-year-rule of Naveen Patnaik’s BJD in 2019.
For a change, the BJP appears to have created a perception that it would provide a political alternative in Odisha which the Congress, despite having a strong traditional base in the state, failed to do. BJP president Amit Shah has devised a strategy to revitalise BJP, of which Odisha is a target. He has already chalked out back- to-back visits to Odisha. However, it would be foolhardy of the BJP to take the BJD lightly. The BJP may feel it has gained a huge ground in the panchayat polls, but historically, these results never set the trend for the outcome of Assembly polls.
An analysis of the results shows the BJD is still miles ahead of the BJP if an Assembly segment-wise dissection is made. Also, it would be foolish to ignore the impact of BJD’s populist welfare schemes for the poor. Weaning them away would be a Herculean task for the BJP which has lost much of its grass-roots contact created through pracharaks who penetrated the tribal hinterlands during the Vajpayee era. Then, there is Naveen Patnaik. A rare combination of shrewd political mind and grace, Naveen continues to hold sway like no other leader of his generation. To find someone who could hold his own against Naveen will be a massive challenge for the BJP. Odisha could be BJP’s development laboratory but it is no UP. Cows and Muslims are not a factor here. But for Naveen, there are signals to get out of the complacence his government is in. To counter the fresh challenge, he has to energise his administration and make it more accountable.