Of the three timelines set by the Madras High Court on the churning in the ruling AIADMK, the first one will come up on September 20, till when Speaker P Dhanapal has been asked not to call a floor test to prove the strength of the Edappadi K Palaniswami government. The order came last week amid apprehension that the rebel MLAs, who failed to appear before the Speaker even after he issued summons thrice, could be disqualified and a snap trust vote held.
While disqualification is a possibility, Palaniswami appears to be exploring all options on the table. His full-scale attack on the V K Sasikala clan at the party’s general council meeting on September 12 and tearing apart her nephew T T V Dhinakaran a few days later at a rally, indicates his attempts to drive a wedge among the dissidents. He built a strong narrative of a power-hungry Dhinakaran plotting along with arch enemy and DMK leader M K Stalin to topple the government.
By picking on Dhinakaran, the chief minister is trying to draw a few defections to avoid the disqualification option. Disqualification is a double-edged weapon that may provide instant relief but leave behind the migraine of facing by-elections six months later. For Palaniswami, the high court’s bar on floor test gave him that much room for manoeuvre.
The next court-imposed timeline is October 23, when it would hear the outcome of the AIADMK general council meeting it allowed subject to final disposal of the case. Some would argue six weeks is too long a time for taking a view on the general council meet, which resolved to abolish the contentious post of general secretary, purge the Sasikala clan and let a coordination committee led by O Panneerselvam and Palaniswami run the party.
Finally, October 31 is the HC deadline set for the Election Commission to resolve the Two Leaves symbol issue that has been pending for months. It appears fair since the EC resolved a similar case in UP quickly in the Samajwadi Party.