Kapus in Andhra Pradesh are a constituency no Chief Minister can afford to ignore, more so N Chandrababu Naidu.This is because they have the power to make or mar the fortunes of a political party at the hustings. With the Telugu Desam party riding to power in the State with just 2 per cent vote margin over its adversary YSRC in the 2014 elections, it comes as no surprise that Naidu does not want Kapus, who are estimated to constitute 27 per cent of the population, to throw a spanner in his preparations for a longer innings in power.
This explains why the TDP is exhibiting a Pavlovian reflex action whenever Kapu patriarch Mudragada Padmanabham announces an agitation. At the moment, the TDP is keenly watching while Mudragada is mobilising crowd for his ‘Chalo Amaravati’ seeking immediate action for according BC status to Kapus, the demand which is as old as Indrakeeladri hill. Though the then chief minister K Vijaya Bhaskara Reddy issued a GO in 1993 including Kapus in the BC list, the High Court struck it down after BC Welfare Association president R Krishnaiah challenged it fearing fresh quota for Kapus would cut into existing reservation percentage of the BCs.
The TDP in fact got only 35 per cent of votes in 2014 elections as against YSRC’s 45 per cent. What helped Naidu was BJP’s 3 per cent and Congress’ 9 per cent votes that went in his favour, making his vote share rise to 47 per cent.
Since January 31, 2016, when miscreants set fire to Ratnachal Express after Mudragada delivered a speech at Kapu Ikya Garjana at Tuni, the police have become hypersensitive to every move of Kapus regardless of the fact that overplaying the game might turn inimical to the interests of the TDP itself.
Even now, after Mudragada announced that the Chalo Amaravati would begin from his residence in Kirlampudi on July 26, the police, including DGP N Sambasiva Rao, who incidentally belongs to that community, has been sending out warnings to them that the rally was illegal since no permission has been granted and that those who take part in it would be doing so at their own risk.
An uneasy calm descends on the TDP making the leaders wonder which of the two options causes least political damage to the party, allowing the rally and risk Kapus being influenced by Mudragada or risk their anger by disrupting it. The TDP, sources said, is unable to decide which is the best option and in all likelihood, the police would be asked to handle the issue, if past instances are any indication.
Kapu legions of the TDP have already begun working overtime, describing Mudragada as YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s creation. Kapu Welfare and Development Corporation Chairman Ch Ramanujaya appears to have been given the assignment of keeping Kapus with the TDP and ever since he has been in an overdrive, attacking Mudragada and Jagan Mohan Reddy. He had even announced that he would go on silent protest on July 26 to rival Mudragada’s Chalo Amaravati.
The reason for the TDP’s unease is the tendency of Kapus to shift loyalties frequently. They remained traditional Congress supporters till NT Rama Rao came along in 1983. They saw in him a leader who could address their problems and supported him. But in the elections that followed, they were back with the Congress. In 2009, they sailed with Chiranjeevi and helped him win 18 seats. After Chiranjeevi merged his Praja Rajyam Party with the Congress, they left him and when Pawan Kalyan arrived on the scene supporting TDP-BJP, they seemed to have voted for the combine. Keeping the Kapu flock together is the main challenge that Naidu faces now.
After 2014, knowing fully well that any move to appease Kapus might not be to the liking of the BCs who are considered staunch loyalists of the TDP and in fact are its backbone, Naidu let the Kapu issue simmer. Sensing an opportunity in getting them on its side, the YSRC began making the right moves and lent its shoulder to Mudragada’s agitation.
As soon as the YSRC began playing the Kapu card, Naidu saw the inherent danger in it and immediately constituted KL Manjunath Commission to study the backwardness of Kapus for inclusion among the BCs while at the same time asking BC ministers in his cabinet explaining how the BC status to Kapus would not hurt their interests. Though there is no way of knowing to what extent they had convinced the BCs, the point that remains is that they are a little agitated if Naidu finally includes Kapus among the BCs.
Said one Kapu leader in the YSRC: “Naidu lacks courage in according BC status to Kapus. This is helping us. If he passes a resolution in the Assembly and sends it to Parliament for inclusion in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution, Kapus could be included among the BCs, Supreme Court order that reservations should not exceed 50 per cent notwithstanding. If he does, he would be in gravy train. But I am sure he would not do it.”