BENGALURU: Initial estimates from different forest divisions of Karnataka reveal a healthy population of elephants. However, it will take another two to three months for complete analysis of the All Indian Synchronised Asian Elephant Population Estimation, which was held from May 16 to 19. State forest officials say the data will be collated and analysed and sent to the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests.
Apart from sample block counting, the dung decay rate analysis was incorporated in all the states for the first time. So the estimate is likely to be more accurate. The analysis involves converting estimates of dung-pile numbers into estimates of elephant numbers, which will take a lot of time and effort.
Additional PCCF (Wildlife) C Jayaram told Express that in the next one-and-a-half-months, analysis will include the dung decay rate which is an indirect method for jumbo sighting.
“Karnataka adopted this method in the last census itself but analysing it takes some time. From the initial estimate of sample counting, it is difficult to say whether the population has stabilised or increased in the last five years,” he said.
Healthy sightings
The census was compared to the 2012 census. It was a happy time for volunteers as on the day of the block counting, an estimated 72 animals were sighted in Bannerghatta National Park (BNP), said Javed Mumtaz, DCF, BNP. The park has almost two elephants per sq km and the male-female ratio is 1:3. Earlier, the area of BNP was 100 sq km, while now it has increased to 260 sq km with the addition of Kodihalli range. Collation of data will take some time, especially the dung experiments, eh said.
A population of 400 elephants were sighted in various ranges of Bandipur National Park. T Heeralal, Director, Bandipur, said, “A group of 85 volunteers were part of the census programme and 400 animals were counted. However, analysis of the data will take 3 months.”
Mitigation strategies
South Asian elephant population estimate will help researchers come out with conflict mitigation measures. “If we have concrete numbers, it is easy to devise strategies for oth conservation and mitigating conflicts,” says Manoj Kumar, CCF, Kodagu division, which is seeing increasing conflict in coffee estates. Kumar adds, “This is the first time the census was done inside and outside forests. It will reveal the population structure and sex ratio. If there is an increase in numbers in Nagarhole, there is no need to worry but if it is outside, we have to devise a scientific strategy to tackle the conflict issues.”