BENGALURU: All is not well for the 15 sitting MPs of BJP in the state with the party high command not too keen on retaining all of them in 2019. With a clear aim of winning at least 22 of the 28 Parliamentary seats in Karnataka in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the party leadership is not averse to dropping sitting MPs and replace them with candidates with a better winning chance.
Highly placed sources in the party suggest BJP is invested in choosing new and younger candidates (below the age of 50) across the country for the polls and Karnataka will also see some sitting MPs being dropped as potential candidates. While the performance of the MPs is monitored on a regular basis at the state and central level, factors like age, demographics of a constituency, loyalty to the party and its ideology are being evaluated to decide on who should be given another chance and who should make way for new blood.
Definite victory in at least 12 seats is the BJP’s current estimate and efforts, sources say, are being made to improve the numbers right till the booth-level. The results of the recent urban local body polls, as well as the Assembly election, have already given the BJP an estimate of the voters’ mood and vote share in specific regions. “BJP generally gets a 6% swing in its favour in Lok Sabha polls when compared to Assembly election. We factor this in and we have a firm calculation of where the vote goes,” said a senior BJP functionary.
Even as the party is preparing for bypolls to three Parliamentary constituencies, it is concentrating heavily on Ballari where the Congress is expected to put up a tough fight. BJP insiders believe that while one of the three seats is a sure shot victory, efforts need to be made to win the Ballari while Mandya is already a giveaway to JD(S).
Pratap Simha, Joshi top performers: BJP review
According to the BJP’s internal performance review of MPs, Mysuru-Kodagu MP Pratap Simha and Dharwad’s Prahlad Joshi rank right at the top, according to those part of the review process. While it is common practice to assess each MP’s performance time to time on factors like constituency engagement, participation in Parliament, effective implementation of Central government schemes, the perception among cadres and promoting party’s ideology, BJP also intends to consider changing demographics before picking its MP candidates for the polls. It is here, party insider believes that Pratap Simha may encounter problems.
“Despite performing very well, the changing demographics of his constituency is expected to make things difficult for Pratap Simha this time around. The JD(S), especially H D Deve Gowda, had backed him in 2014 but the same won’t repeat this time,” observed an office-bearer of the BJP’s central leadership in-charge of Karnataka.
Mysuru-Kodagu constituency is expected to create a storm between coalition partners Congress and JD(S),
with both parties vying for the seat, even before it poses a challenge to the BJP. While some MPs may be shifted out of their constituencies, many may have to face the axe altogether.