BENGALURU: For two weeks now, the storm of instability has been rocking the Congress-JDS coalition in Karnataka.
Everytime a chartered flight takes off from HAL airport ferrying disgruntled MLAs of the coalition one by one, a new hole is being punched in Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy's already sinking ship.
While the drama is set to continue for the near future, one can’t help but look back to the past.
The phenomenon of instability is anything but new for Karnataka. Just in the last 20 years, Karnataka has seen five elections, two fractured mandates, three coalition governments, two stints of President's rule and believe it or not ten Chief Ministers.
The most telling phenomenon, however, has been how the electorate of the State have always voted out an incumbent government.
Ever since the reorganisation of State as Karnataka only two Chief ministers- D Devaraj Urs elected to office in 1972 and Siddaramaiah elected to office in 2013- have been successful in completing a full five years as Chief Minister.
The state has seen 18 other Chief Ministers in this period and only SM Krishna came close to completing a full term but lasted 4 years and 230 days in office.
From instability because of a fractured mandate, to parties taking to resort politics, as well as issues caused by internal party bickering, corruption charges and a constant change at the helm, Karnataka has seen it all.
The Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) has been an indispensable part of the three coalitions that the State has seen in the last 20 years. Twice teaming up with the Congress and once with the BJP, the only time JDS has enjoyed being in power was when the State threw up a fractured mandate.
The JDS' transition from Janata Party to its 'breakaway' came with its set of challenges and the emergence of the BJP as a key contender against Congress was just one of them, the real challenge has been the party's inability to come to power on its own.
Adding to all this, Political analyst and Researcher Prof Sandeep Shastri points out that both SM Krishna and Siddaramaiah governments, despite being the only ones stable at least in terms of Chief Ministership, were voted out by the electorate, a move which could show that the leadership was unable to convince the voters that they have provided good governance.
"The rest of the governments have been marred by political instability. They were all creatures of political necessity. None were natural alliances. They were in power and the struggle was to remain in power and governance suffered," he pointed out.
The first coalition in the last twenty years was a compulsion of a fractured mandate in 2004 which brought the Congress and JDS together. Dharam Singh as Chief minister lasted barely a year and 250 days.
Infighting between coalition leaders led to the collapse of the government with the JDS conveniently shifting sides to BJP on a '20:20' agreement with HD Kumaraswamy taking over as Chief Minister for the first instalment.
Yeddyurappa was to take over after 20 months but the coalition fell apart after JDS refused to handover the Chief Minister's post.
Despite lacking numbers, Yeddyurappa took oath as Chief Minister only for the JDS to pull the plug on the coalition forcing a period of President's rule in the State before the 2008 assembly elections.
In 2008, BS Yeddyurappa rode a sympathy wave but fell short of a majority, winning 110 seats- just three short of a simple majority. For the first time, people of Karnataka realised the real 'value' of an independent MLA perhaps as BJP leaders sat in posh resorts trying to buy support from independent MLAs as well as legislators from other parties.
The root of resort politics in Karnataka perhaps can be sourced to post-2008 assembly elections. The BJP was in power for full-five years but not without its share of internal bickering, MLAs holding the government hostage and 'near collapse' situations. Despite a 'single party' rule, the period saw three different Chief Ministers.
"Karnataka has seen three fractured mandates so far- in 1983, 2004 and 2018- and I look at them as transitions. In 83' it was a transition from one-party dominance. In 2004, the transition showed two-players emerging making it a bi-polar competition. 2018 recorded a transition on whether Karnataka is moving towards a tri-polar competition from a bi-polar one," Prof Shastri pointed out.
“It needs another election to see where it is headed. If either the Congress or JDS is routed completely then we go back to a bi-polar competition. That is the nature of electoral politics in Karnataka," Prof Shashtri pointed out.
