BENGALURU: After haggling for several weeks, the coalition partners have finally managed to strike a deal, but the big challenge now is to ensure transfer of votes that would ensure success of the Congress and the JDS candidates in the Lok Sabha elections to keep BJP out. Analysts say it all depends on how effectively top leaders from both the parties pass on the message to their workers at the ground level.
Transfer of Congress votes to the JD(S) candidates will be crucial and will have an impact on the results in constituencies like Mandya, Tumkur and Bangalore North, while the Congress will be depending on the regional party votes in Chikkaballapur and Mysore. Given the traditional rivalry between workers of both the parties, it would not be an easy task for the leaders to convince their respective party cadres.
In Mandya, it would be difficult for the Congress to ensure its complete support to Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy, who is pitted against actress Sumalatha, wife of late actor-turned-politician Ambareesh, and it will almost be the same case for the Congress candidate in Siddaramaiah’s district Mysore.
If former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda decides to contest from Bangalore North, he would require complete support from the Congress and the JD(S), which would make a huge difference for former Chief Minister M Veerappa Moily in Chikkaballapur LS seat.
In 2014, Moily won with a narrow margin of a little over 9,000 votes against BN Bache Gowda of the BJP in a triangular contest in which JD(S) candidate HD Kumaraswamy bagged 3,46,339 votes. In a straight contest with BJP in the Vokkaliga-dominated constituency, Moily would be depending on Kumaraswamy’s support.
“It will be challenging. Vote transfer will ultimately depend on how effectively the top leadership passes on the message to its leaders on the ground. Responsibility of leaders of both the parties is very important as there is bound to be serious differences at the workers’ level because you have been in competition with each other for years,” said political analyst Prof Sandeep Shastri.According to him, everything will work fine only if it is an “arrangement of mutual support”.
Political analyst Prof Muzaffar Assadi, however, is of the view that vote transfer will not be a major issue and Deve Gowda-Siddaramaiah combination will also be able to consolidate Vokkaliga and minority votes, while also getting a significant chunk of OBC votes.
“In 1990s, Deve Gowda brought together different social categories to form a combination of MOVD - minorities, other backward classes, Vokkaligas and dalits. Now, with Deve Gowda at the helm, he would cement that coalition,” he said.
While there will be no ambiguity among minorities as they would support Congress -JD(S) candidates, SC/ST and OBC votes will be divided, he added.
To send the right message to their party workers, top leaders from JD(S) and Congress will address rallies together and hold meetings will local leaders in the next few days.
“We are confident of transferring votes and winning around 22 out of 28 seats in the state. The Congress is our partner and we will campaign wherever they want us to campaign and they will also do the same,” said JD(S) MLC TA Sharavana. “We have formed the coalition to stop BJP in Karnataka, which the party calls ‘gateway to South India’. Only Deve Gowda is capable of doing it,” he added.