BENGALURU: With just one phase of voting away, the countdown has begun and political parties in Karnataka are bracing for the judgement day. Karnataka, expected to be most impacted by the May 23 results politically, is naturally on the edge.
Though internal surveys and assessments of the BJP, as well as the Congress-JD(S) coalition, suggest that the state is unlikely to sway largely from its voting patterns compared to 2014 polls, uncertainty is looming large not just over the BJP’s plans of attempting to return to power in the state but also over the survival of the coalition government due to the uneasy alliance.
Despite leaders of the Congress and JDS insisting that no harm will come to the coalition post results, rumblings are growing louder so much so that the discomfort between the coalition partners is becoming apparent by the day.
Both the BJP as well as Congress-JDS have confidently declared that they will win not less than 22 seats out of the 28 in the state.
However, realistic internal assessment by all three parties is being used to put things into perspective and chart out future plans. According to sources in the party, the BJP expects to win 14 seats and sees three more as contentious seats.
The Congress independently pegs its numbers between 11 and 12 with a tough fight in about five seats including Mysore-Kodagu, Davangere and Chikkaballapur. Sources from the JDS say that out of the seven seats that the party has contested, it is sure of a victory in two seats but hopes to win in two more, including the political cynosure Mandya.
In a sort of a pre-emptive strike, the state Congress wants to tell the high command that their chances of winning more seats will be greater if only they weren’t in a coalition. And senior party leaders have started believing in this theory.
“We could have had a better tally with sure victory in seats like Chikkaballapur. Also in seats like Tumkur and probably Mandya if we had a candidate. The alliance with the JDS may actually cost us some seats,” said a senior leader.
The JDS is looking to gain, if any, just one more than its current tally of two seats out of 28 in the State.
What will become of the Congress-JDS coalition depends entirely on which way the political breeze blows after May 23. But for the BJP in Karnataka, the plan is ready irrespective of the outcome.BJP intends to turn the strain between the coalition partners into its favour. With 104 MLAs, the party hopes to win both bypoll-bound assembly seats of Chincholi and Kundgol to take its tally to 106. The deficit, it hopes to bridge with disgruntled legislators of both Congress and JDS.
“We will win these bypolls with a huge margin. All attempts of Congress to use money and muscle power to lure our leaders won’t work. Given the current situation where we are likely to form the government, our leaders will remain united,” said BJP state president B S Yeddyurappa on Sunday. Not taking BJP’s intimidation lying down, minister Zameer Ahmed said, “BJP has been trying to topple this coalition from the beginning but despite several deadlines, they have failed. Ten MLAs of the BJP are also in touch with us.”
The war of words between Congress and JDS leaders shows that strained relations between the two parties are a serious concern. While Congress is miffed over JDS’ non-cooperation in key seats like Mysore, the latter is growing impatient with Congress leaders endorsing Siddaramaiah as the next CM. Siddaramaih has categorically stated that Kumaraswamy will complete his term of five years as CM and that he isn’t an aspirant. But that hasn’t comforted JD(S). “People should decide if he can become CM. Will it happen simply because he wants it? What is so special about Siddaramaiah’s governance? Many of his cronies want him as CM but what development happened under his regime?” asked H Vishwanath, JDS State president on Sunday.
Having decided not to be lenient any more with their coalition partner, Congress hit back. “This is a coalition and both parties should share equal responsibility. Irrespective of who they are, people should exercise caution before they speak. It is unnecessary for the JDS state president to make such remarks,” said Dinesh Gundu Rao, KPCC president.
What it means for parties
With an imminent change of guard on the cards at the organisational level, Yeddyurappa hopes to let go of the State president’s post with anticipation of forming the government in the State. While JDS awaits May 23 with pride of the party’s first family on the line, the State Congress has decided to present its case before the party high command.