BENGALURU: Never before has an innocuous Assembly bypoll attracted as much attention as the Kundgol (Dharwad) and Chincholi (Gulbarga) seats. In the run-up to the byelections (May 19), both Congress and BJP have been claiming that they will make a clean sweep. Only May 23, the results day, will tell if their claims are proved right.
Both seats were held by Congress. The elections were necessitated in Kundgol after the death of MLA C S Shivalli and in Chincholi, following Congress MLA Umesh Jadhav’s defection to the BJP. Congress fielded Subhash Rathod from Chincholi and Kusumavathi Shivalli from Kundgol.Rathod and Kusumavathi Shivalli will be pitted against BJP candidates Avinash Jadhav and Chikkanagoudar Patil.
These elections are important for both the ruling and the opposition parties. While a loss of these seats could be a tactical disadvantage for the BJP, a win would be helpful for the coalition. According to sources, indications are that Congress has a clear edge in Kundgol but in Chincholi, it is the BJP that has the advantage. Chincholi is extremely important for the Congress and the Kharge's because it is part of Gulbarga, considered their bastion. A defeat here would mean a loss of face for the Kharge's -- Mallikarjun and his son Priyank who is a minister.
What is worrying for the Congress-JDS camp is that BJP will be seeking to push up its number of MLAs from 104. And if it succeeds in winning these two seats, it would reach 106. “It is clear that nothing is right between the Congress and the JD(S),” BJP state president B S Yeddyurappa said recently, expressing confidence that his party will win both the seats to take the party’s tally to 106 seats.
According to an internal survey of the Congress-JDS, the caste equation may go against the Congress in Chincholi. The major communities are Lingayat, Banjara, Scheduled Castes and OBCs. While the OBCs are supporting the Congress, the Lingayats and Banjaras are supporting the BJP. Dy CM Parameshwara said, “We have a Banjara candidate too and we too expect Banjara votes.’’
In Chincholi, the JDS has a negligible presence and hence, there is no question of vote transfer. But political observers point out that even though Congress candidate Subash Rathod is a Banjara, he is not from Chincholi, and the clannish Banjaras are still backing Umesh Jadhav’s son and BJP candidate Avinash Jadhav. In addition to the Banjaras, the Lingayats have traditionally supported BJP.
About 12 months ago, the Congress won this seat by 19,000 votes.
In Kundgol, the story reads differently. The JDS had about 6,000 plus votes and the winning margin was around 600. In addition, the JDU had fielded a candidate and polled about 7,000 votes and both these are supporting the Congress. Add to this the sympathy wave in Kusumavathi Shivalli’s favour and it becomes considerable.