BENGALURU: When the dust kicked up by the Lok Sabha election results settles on Thursday, the political matrix is also likely to crystallise in Karnataka. A number game will play out, and the Congress-JDS coalition will have to work extra hard to keep their MLAs intact. If both parties intend to continue in government, that is.
For, the BJP has a clear strategy in hand: it plans to go it slow, play on the weakness of the alliance and shore up its numbers after government formation at the Centre.
The failure of chemistry between the coalition partners, that led to public sparring and growing dissent, especially post elections, is helping the BJP get its arithmetic in place.“This time, there will be no haste. We will wait for things to settle at the Centre, before moving our pawns here,” said a source from BJP state president B S Yeddyurappa’s camp, revealing that it is only a matter of time before the BJP’s current strength of 104 climbs to 115, to tie with the Congress-JDS coalition.
While the Congress insists that the coalition will remain unfazed by the election results, the BJP seems to have its game chalked out. Apart from two Independent MLAs R Shankar and H Nagesh, BJP sources suggest that the lone BSP MLA, N Mahesh, who quit his ministerial berth, will also extend support.
The BJP is also hopeful of winning both Chincholi and Kundgol, to take its tally to 109. Sources say that with rebellion brewing in the Congress, Ramesh Jarkiholi, B Nagendra and Mahesh Kumathalli — who have already held multiple rounds of discussions with BJP MLA Ashwathnarayana — are willing to jump ship, taking its tally to 112, the halfway mark.
Roshan Baig’s sudden outburst on Tuesday and Chikkaballapura MLA Dr K Sudhakar’s hints of shifting loyalties on Wednesday, gave the BJP a renewed confidence that the party can show the support of at least 114 MLAs. “Today, I am an MLA of the Congress. Nobody knows what the future has in store,” Sudhakar told the media on Wednesday, even as he criticised his own party for suggesting EVM tampering, subtly dropping hints that he was willing to defy the Congress.
While the BJP gets its numbers together, murmurs of President’s rule being imposed in the near future are gaining strength with Governor Vajubhai Vala’s absence from Raj Bhavan, strategically till the end of this week, according to sources in Raj Bhavan.
State will get a new govt in a day or two, says DVS
The national leadership of the BJP, according to party sources, doesn’t want the charade of MLAs switching parties, and would rather keep allegations of horsetrading at bay, as they prepare for government formation at the Centre. The state leadership has been given leeway to gather support, as long as it doesn’t dent the image of the party. Call recordings of BJP leaders, including Yeddyurappa luring Congress-JDS MLAs, have already left the party red-faced.
“Tomorrow or the day after will be the last day for Kumaraswamy as chief minister. After that, the stage will be set for the formation of a new government,” said DV Sadananda Gowda, senior BJP leader and MP candidate from Bangalore North. He had no qualms about claiming that the BJP is actively looking to form the government in Karnataka.
Political analysts, too, believe that the coalition government’s exit is just a matter of time now. “The coalition’s purpose is now complete, and irrespective of which way the results go, the Karnataka government is on its way out, the question is when it will happen,” said A Narayana, political analyst and researcher. He believes that the question of whether the Congress and JDS will themselves call off the coalition or fall short of numbers, is not mutually exclusive. “Congress doesn’t want to continue the coalition anymore, and the JDS senses it. It should come as no surprise if the JDS actively helps the BJP form the government with H D Revanna as deputy chief minister.”
CMO call to guv’s office sets off speculation
Fuelling speculation about the future of the coalition government, the CM’s office on Wednesday evening called up the office of Governor Vajubhai Vala to inquire about his availability on Thursday evening, sources told TNIE. The Governor left for Gujarat on Tuesday and is likely to return either on Thursday or Friday. “Though the CMO said the call was to find out about the Governor’s availability on Thursday when the coalition government completes one year in office, it is possible that the CM is anxious about the future of the government and would want to meet the Governor with Congress leaders. There’s anxiety in JDS and Congress regarding the survival of the government and the fear is that some of their MLAs may switch over to BJP,” said sources.— Bala Chauhan