THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: In what could be a major relief to Keralites reeling under the sweltering summer, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a near-normal Southwest Monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall across the country as a whole. The announcement will bring some solace to the farm sector and the overall economy, as private weather forecaster Skymet had earlier predicted below-normal monsoon in the period.
However, it is perceived the onset of monsoon over Kerala could be delayed owing to the prevailing El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. According to IMD, seasonal monsoon rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus five per cent. Skymet had, in its first bulletin, claimed it expected monsoon to be 93 per cent of LPA.
IMD, after taking into parameters like the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between North Atlantic and North Pacific, Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST, and others has observed weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during monsoon with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.“At present, weak El Niño conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean. Latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission CFS and other global climate models indicate such conditions are likely to persist during monsoon but with reduced intensity in the season’s later part,” it said.
It said at present, neutral Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) conditions are prevailing over Indian Ocean. “Latest forecasts from the models indicate positive IOD conditions development likely during monsoon. Overall, the country is expected to have well-distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to India’s farmers during the ensuing Kharif season,” it said.
Above normal temperature
In its daily weather bulletin, IMD predicted the state will witness 2-3 degree Celsius above normal temperature on Wednesday, except in Wayanad. People are advised to take precautions.