THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: With just one day remaining for the end of bypoll campaign in five assembly constituencies, the Left is hopeful of making a big comeback after the humiliating loss it suffered in the Lok Sabha election.
Going by the final assessment, the front hopes to make it big in Aroor, Vattiyoorkavu and Konni, and to improve upon its previous performance in Ernakulam and Manjeshwar.
Caste equations would undoubtedly play a major role in the elections this time. It’s an open secret that the prominent candidates in the fray have been widely seeking the backing of their respective communities during campaigning. That is one reason why the NSS and the SNDP have openly expressed their choice of candidates this time.
While two from Nair community and one from the Ezhava community are fighting it out at Vattiyorkavu, it is just the opposite at Konni, where two Ezhava and one Nair candidates are pitted against each other. In both places, all the three fronts seemed to have clearly calculated and assessed their share of caste votes and how they could be swayed in each one’s favour.
In Ernakulam, both the LDF and UDF candidates are from the Latin Catholic community, while the NDA candidate is a minority candidate.
The NSS’ decision to openly opposed the LDF could pose a threat to the Left in some of these constituencies. In Vattiyoorkavu, the NSS has been openly campaigning in favour of the UDF. Though caste equations do play a major role, the Left feels it can improve its position compared to the previous two elections - the 2016 Assembly polls and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls - when it was pushed to the third slot.
“This time, the Mayor’s ‘Bro’ image has been working wonders for the Left in Vattiyoorkavu. The caste cards are of course a crucial factor. But as per our calculations, the Left could win with a majority of around 4,ooo votes. The BJP may poll only around 40,000 votes and will be pushed to third slot. A section pro-Muraleedharan voters are unhappy about the denial of the seat to Peethambara Kurup. That is sure to reflect in the polls,” said a Left leader.
In Konni, community equations could play a crucial role in favour of the Left candidate, the front hopes. The Left is banking on the Ezhava vote base in the constituency, in addition to a possible consolidation of minority votes, especially the Christian votes in its favour.
“K Surendran will not get the same kind of support that he received during the Lok Sabha polls. In fact, invoking the Sabarimala issue this time around could prove to be costly for the BJP,” observed a CPM state leader, who wished not to be named.
The CPM is also almost confident of retaining Aroor, the party’s only sitting seat. In Ernakulam and Manjeshwar, the CPM is sure of coming second. Going by the current scenario, the Left seems confident of increasing its tally this time.