BHUBANESWAR: A strong weather system starting to brew over the South China Sea is likely to move over to the north Indian Ocean and adjoining Bay of Bengal before heading towards the eastern coast of India in the third week of the month. If weather outlook of Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) is to be believed, there is a fair chance of it turning into a tropical cyclone (TC).
Its bulletin issued on October 10 for the next two weeks says that satellite imagery and met parameters indicate a monsoon trough extending from the South China Sea through Micronesia. Weather models indicate possible tropical cyclone (TC) formation on an eventual westward track between Philippines and Marianas during October 11-17 with another system possible towards October 18-14 week.
“Given the substantial signal for tropical cyclone development in both weeks, consistent with Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) composites of tropical cyclone formation, a high risk of tropical cyclone formation is given for this area in both weeks,” the bulletin says.So far, the Indian forecasters have not made any claims about the possibility of a tropical cyclone on the grounds that it is too early to make any prediction.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has come up with a prediction for a low pressure over the Bay of Bengal around October 15 but that is about it. This system will head towards the east coast around October 19-20. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model also supports the prediction.
Private weather forecaster, Skymet says that cyclonic a circulation is over east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea for last 24 hours and cloud configuration and atmospheric conditions indicate it becoming more marked in next few days. It is likely to strengthen into a well-marked low pressure area and subsequently into a depression by October 17 or 18.
Sources say there are two possibilities. One, the cyclonic circulation may get enough time over the sea to strengthen into a cyclonic storm though there is no official word available on it.
However, another source says that the system brewing over South China Sea may merge into the current system and snowball into a TC. The JTWC outlook for the next two weeks hints at the second possibility.
Meanwhile, Skymet says the cyclonic circulation over BoB will continue to churn and due to favourable weather conditions probability of the system becoming a cyclone cannot be ruled out because there is a long sea travel left.
Predictions
● As per JTWC's weather outlook there is a fair chance of the strong weather system turning into a tropical cyclone
● IMD predicts low pressure over the Bay of Bengal around Oct 15. The system will head towards east coast around Oct 19-20. ECMWF model supports the prediction
● Skymet says conditions indicate it becoming more marked in next few days
● Likely to strengthen into a well-marked low pressure area and subsequently into a depression by October 17 or 18