BHUBANESWAR: As the final results of General Elections 2019 in Odisha stand, Modi magic seems to have worked its way in the State with BJP making big gains in the Lok Sabha, raising its tally from one in 2014 to eight this year.
The Prime Minister has notched up a massive over 75 per cent strike rate in ensuring victory of BJP in the seats that he had campaigned in. With the marathon elections in the State, which stretched through four phases, Modi had held rallies and road shows in eight Lok Sabha seats spread across the entire poll duration. And, six of them have come to the BJP kitty.
Modi had held rallies in Jeypore in Koraput, Bhawanipatna in Kalahandi, Sonepur in Balangir, Sundargarh, Sambalpur, Bhubaneswar, Kendrapara and Balasore LS seats. Barring Kendrapara and Koraput, the BJP has won all the other seats where he had campaigned.
His strategically devised campaigning in tune with the four-phase polls and covering maximum geographical areas also had a spiral effect on other seats across the State. Though not converting into wins, the BJP has seen a huge swing in vote percentage in the Lok Sabha seats that has risen from around 21.5 per cent in 2014 to 38.37 per cent in 2019. A 16.9 per cent rise in vote share has converted Odisha to virtually a two-horse race with BJD at the top securing nearly 43 per cent and the Congress relegated to the margins at around 13.81 per cent. In 2014, the BJD had secured a vote share of nearly 45 per cent while the Congress had commanded 26.4 per cent.
The BJP has come a close second in 11 seats apart from Koraput and Nabarangpur where it came third. The fight has been tight with BJD in almost all the seats as seen in the keenly contested Puri Lok Sabha constituency where a see-saw between Sambit Patra and sitting MP Pinaki Mishra continued to the late stages of counting. Mishra eventually won by a thin margin of only 11,000-odd votes.
However, the Modi wave was not able to breach Naveen fortress in the Assembly even though the BJP narrowed the vote share gap with the BJD significantly, again pushing Congress to a distant third. While the BJD held its ground winning 112 seats – only five down from 2014 - the BJP only managed to little more than double its tally from 10 in 2014 to 23.
The gains again have come from the expected regions, particularly the Western and Northern Odisha where it had tasted huge success in 2017 rural polls. The party again failed to make any impact in the Coastal and Southern districts which remained steadfastly loyal to Naveen and BJD.
In Central Odisha districts like Dhenkanal and Angul, the home ground of Union Minister and party’s Chief Ministerial face Dharmendra Pradhan, the BJP was expected to do well. But, it drew a complete blank both in Lok Sabha and Assembly seats.
According to political analysts, the 2019 election was a direct battle of personalities between Modi and Naveen in which both were preferred in their respective domains. The Modi impact is visible across the Lok sabha constituencies through the surge in BJP’s vote share and close battles in a substantial chunk of seats. But, it did not translate into wins mainly due to the lack of a strong organisational base, poor candidate selection, leadership and machinery at the State level.
Wherever the party had organisational strength, it has done well both in Lok Sabha and Assembly. For instance, it won the Mayurbhanj Lok Sabha seat and five of the seven Assembly segments under it. In Balasore, Sundargarh and Sambalpur, it won three Assembly segments each.
In contrast, though the party won the Bargarh LS seat by over 63,000 votes, it could not muster even one Assembly segment from there. This is one constituency where the split voting factor is distinct. The major reasons being Naveen Patnaik contesting from Bjepur, an Assembly segment under the LS constituency, and the damage sustained by the organisation after former Bajrang Dal national convenor and 2014 BJP candidate Subash Chauhan joined BJD after being denied poll ticket.
In Bhubaneswar too, despite winning the Lok Sabha seat, the saffron party could not open its account in the seven Assembly segments.