CHENNAI: With the 18 disqualified MLAs deciding not to move the Supreme Court against the Madras High Court verdict upholding their disqualification, political parties in Tamil Nadu have to face a mini-Assembly election in the form of by-elections to 20 constituencies (including the two seats lying vacant due to death of representatives). The outcome will be a game-changer in State politics ahead of the next Assembly polls in 2021 if not earlier.
Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) founder and RK Nagar MLA TTV Dhinakaran announced the decision of the 18 disqualified MLAs, a U-turn from their stance on October 26, to media at the Madurai airport on Wednesday. Indeed the AMMK has little to lose. Its candidates are familiar faces and even if the party wins just a few seats and is runner up in others, it will give Dhinakaran a huge advantage in moving towards his goal of ‘redeeming’ the AIADMK.
The ruling AIADMK, hanging on to a wafer-thin majority in Assembly, has to win at least nine seats to remain in government.The stakes are much higher for the principal opposition party, DMK, which has been a mere spectator in State politics for the past few years. The bypolls offer a golden opportunity for the party to prove itself a political force.
However, even if the party wins all 20 seats, its numbers in Assembly will reach only 117, one short of a simple majority in a House of 234. At best this would help the DMK topple the present regime and force fresh Assembly elections. Further, new party chief M K Stalin has to establish that he can lead the DMK to victory given his elder brother MK Alagiri has been ridiculing him over the DMK’s performance in RK Nagar by-election, where the party lost its deposit.
Chief Election Commission OP Rawat had said that if the disqualified MLAs failed to challenge the HC verdict within 30 days, the commissiwon would start making arrangements for holding by-elections to the 18 seats. The Election Commission had postponed notifying bypolls to the two seats lying vacant following death of their representatives as TN had said state machinery would be tied up in managing the situation after onset of the North East monsoon.
In 5 days, Change of 18 hearts?
On October 26, the 18 disqualified MLAs had decided to move the Supreme Court against the HC verdict. But on Wednesday, AMMK deputy general secretary TTV Dhinakaran said they were ready to face bypolls instead.